生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The report predicts that the hog price will experience a period of volatile adjustment. The supply of hogs is expected to be abundant until December, making it difficult for the price to rise significantly. However, the price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs is expected to strengthen seasonally, which will support the hog price to some extent. Given that the 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price and the short - term price fluctuations are limited, the report suggests a wait - and - see approach [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On July 22, the registered hog warehouse receipts were 284 lots. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and the fundamentals of the hog market have few contradictions in the medium term. The LH2509 contract is in a wide - range volatile adjustment. The main contract (LH2509) reduced its positions by 4,438 lots today, with a position of about 59,800 lots. The highest price today was 14,415 yuan/ton, the lowest was 14,285 yuan/ton, and it closed at 14,380 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the breeding sow inventory, the supply of hogs is expected to increase month - by - month from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to the piglet data, the hog slaughter volume will generally increase in the second and third quarters of 2025. In terms of demand, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - to - standard hog price difference may strengthen. The bearish logic in the market includes slow and difficult weight reduction by the farming sector, continuous increase in subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support for hog prices as the second and third quarters are not the peak consumption seasons. The bullish logic includes the potential increase in frozen product inventory, strong spot price resilience, and the fact that although the subsequent slaughter volume will increase, the increase is limited, and the third and fourth quarters are gradually entering the peak hog consumption season [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestion - The view is volatile adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the hog slaughter volume may increase month - by - month until December, making it difficult for the hog price to rise significantly under abundant supply. The price difference between 150Kg hogs and standard hogs has stabilized and rebounded, and it is expected to continue to strengthen seasonally, which will weaken the weight - reduction willingness of the retail farming group and support the hog price. The 2509 contract is basically at par with the spot price, and the short - term price fluctuations of hogs are limited. Therefore, it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 3.4行情概览 (Market Overview) - The report provides the futures prices of different hog contracts on July 22 and 21, including the 01, 03, 05, 07, 09, and 11 contracts, and their price changes and percentage changes. For example, the 01 contract rose by 180 yuan/ton, with a percentage increase of 1.28%, from 14,110 yuan/ton on July 21 to 14,290 yuan/ton on July 22 [6]. 3.5重点数据追踪 (Key Data Tracking) - The report shows the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the hog main contract in the Henan region, the price difference between the 09 - 11 contracts, and the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, with data sources from Yongyi Consulting, Wind, and Rongda Futures [14].