Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-23 02:45Group 1 - The report highlights that the global stock market experienced a rapid rebound in Q2 2023, with US and German stocks reaching historical highs, but there are concerns about potential significant pullbacks in Q3 due to high sentiment and valuation levels [6][8][10] - The rebound since April 2023 is primarily attributed to the recovery of expectations following Trump's TACO, with PE valuation recovery being a major contributor, alongside a decline in ERP and upward revisions in EPS [6][8] - The report notes that the liquidity shock in US Treasury bonds in summer 2023 led to significant pressure on risk assets, with the issuance scale exceeding market expectations and Fitch downgrading US debt ratings [8][10] Group 2 - In summer 2024, a rise in unemployment triggered recession expectations, leading to a reversal of carry trades and liquidity shocks in the market, with the US CPI falling below expectations and impacting bond yields [16][19] - The report indicates that the potential economic recession pressure is a major concern for the market, with the performance of tech stocks and consumer stocks being closely monitored [16][19] - The report emphasizes that the AI industry's revenue is meeting expectations, but traditional business performance is slowing down, affecting profit margins [16][19] Group 3 - The report identifies three potential risks for global risk assets in the second half of 2025, including the gradual realization of previously ignored tariff impacts, the rising risk of interest rates due to fiscal expansion, and the uncertainty stemming from Trump's policy shifts [21][22][32] - The microeconomic impacts of tariffs are expected to become more evident in corporate earnings reports, particularly regarding how companies manage the costs associated with tariffs [22][25] - The report discusses the implications of fiscal expansion in the US and Japan, highlighting the potential for increased fiscal deficits and the challenges posed by reliance on short-term debt financing [32][34]