商品期货早班车-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold; for silver, short - term risk avoidance is recommended, but there are still short - selling opportunities in the long run [1]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices; for alumina, close attention should be paid to policy implementation and other factors; for lithium carbonate, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly [1][2][3]. - For the black industry, it is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach, and for some products, long positions should be closed at appropriate times [4]. - For agricultural products, soybean meal lacks a real driving force; corn is expected to fluctuate; sugar is recommended to go short; cotton is recommended to go long at low prices; palm oil is short - term strong; eggs are expected to be strong; pork is expected to fluctuate and adjust; and apples are recommended to wait and see [6][7]. - For energy and chemical products, LLDPE is short - term strong and long - term supply is expected to be loose; PVC is recommended to wait and see; PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA is recommended to short - sell processing fees; glass is recommended to wait and see; PP is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose; MEG is expected to be weak; crude oil is recommended to go short at high prices; EB is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose; and soda ash is recommended to wait and see [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Category Precious Metals Gold - Market performance: On Tuesday, precious metal prices continued to strengthen, with the London gold price breaking through $3400 [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced trade agreements, and there were changes in gold inventories in different markets [1]. - Trading strategy: The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, suggesting going long on gold [1]. Silver - Market performance: Silver rose to $39 [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump's tariff policies and inventory changes [1]. - Trading strategy: Short - term risk avoidance is recommended for long positions, and there are long - term short - selling opportunities [1]. Base Metals Aluminum - Market performance: The electrolytic aluminum contract rose 0.29% to 20,840 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: High - load production on the supply side and a slight increase in terminal demand [2]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. Alumina - Market performance: The alumina contract rose 3.75% to 3386 yuan/ton [2]. - Fundamentals: Stable production on the supply side and high - load consumption on the demand side [2]. - Trading strategy: Pay close attention to policy implementation and other factors [2]. Lithium Carbonate - Market performance: The main contract rose 2.71% to 72,880 yuan/ton [3]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand is expected to improve marginally [3]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate strongly [3]. Black Industry Rebar - Market performance: The main contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 3302 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are balanced, and the valuation is slightly high [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times [4]. Iron Ore - Market performance: The main contract rose 9.5 yuan/ton to 818.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are marginally neutral to strong, and the valuation is neutral [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times, and consider a long position in the 2605 volume - to - ore ratio [4]. Coking Coal - Market performance: The main contract rose 103 yuan/ton to 1135.5 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are relatively loose, and the futures valuation is high [4]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach, and close long positions at appropriate times [4]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: CBOT soybeans fell slightly [6]. - Fundamentals: The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand has uncertainties [6]. - Trading strategy: There is no real driving force, and attention should be paid to weather and policies [6]. Corn - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated after rising [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply and demand are tightening, and there are both positive and negative factors [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate [6]. Sugar - Market performance: The 09 contract fell 0.1% to 5819 yuan/ton [6]. - Fundamentals: The domestic and foreign markets rebounded jointly, and there are profit margins [6]. - Trading strategy: Go short in the futures market [6]. Cotton - Market performance: The price stopped falling and rebounded [6]. - Fundamentals: There are differences in the growth situation at home and abroad, and the inventory is decreasing [6]. - Trading strategy: Go long at low prices [6]. Palm Oil - Market performance: It continued to be strong [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is weakening, and demand has support [6]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term strong, and attention should be paid to production and policies [6]. Eggs - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price rose [6]. - Fundamentals: Supply is decreasing, and demand is increasing seasonally, but the cold - storage egg inventory is high [6]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to be strong [6]. Pork - Market performance: The 2509 contract fluctuated narrowly, and the spot price fell [7]. - Fundamentals: Consumption is weakening seasonally, and supply is increasing [7]. - Trading strategy: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [7]. Apples - Market performance: The main contract rose 0.08% to 7929 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: The price of early - maturing apples has risen, and the final output is uncertain [7]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [7]. Energy and Chemicals LLDPE - Market performance: The main contract continued to rise slightly [7]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand is improving [7]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term strong and long - term supply is expected to be loose [7]. PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract rose 1.2% [7]. - Fundamentals: Affected by coal policies, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is accumulating [7]. - Trading strategy: Close short positions and wait and see [7]. PTA - Market performance: The PX price is 843 dollars/ton, and the PTA spot price is 4785 yuan/ton [7]. - Fundamentals: PX supply is medium, PTA supply is increasing, and polyester demand is weak [7]. - Trading strategy: Go long on PX and short - sell PTA processing fees [7]. Glass - Market performance: The fg09 contract rose 2.8% [8]. - Fundamentals: Affected by coal policies, supply is expected to increase, and inventory is decreasing [8]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [8]. PP - Market performance: The main contract continued to rebound slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand is differentiated [8]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose [8]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price is 4490 yuan/ton [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is high, and demand is weak [8]. - Trading strategy: It is expected to be weak, and short - sell at high prices [8]. Crude Oil - Market performance: The price fell slightly [8]. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, and demand has short - term support but long - term risks [8]. - Trading strategy: Go short at high prices [8]. EB - Market performance: The main contract fluctuated slightly [9]. - Fundamentals: Supply is expected to increase, and demand has uncertainties [9]. - Trading strategy: It is short - term volatile and long - term supply is expected to be loose [9]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The sa09 contract rose 3.8% [9]. - Fundamentals: Affected by policies, supply may decrease, and demand is weak [9]. - Trading strategy: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9].