光大证券晨会速递-20250723

Group 1: Construction Materials - The central urban work conference emphasized urban renewal and improvement rather than large-scale demolition, focusing on meeting public needs and enhancing existing urban development [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission called for preventing low-level redundant construction and vicious competition, indicating a shift towards high-quality development in the low-altitude economy [1] Group 2: Machinery - Exports to North America continued to decline in June, but the engineering machinery category maintained a high level of prosperity, with excavators, tractors, and mining machinery showing year-on-year growth rates of 22%, 26%, and 23% respectively [2] - Recommendations include关注一拖股份 and 徐工机械 based on the strong performance in the engineering machinery sector [2] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals - In Q2 2025, the holding ratio of non-ferrous metal heavy stocks increased to 4.3%, with significant increases in rare earths and minor metals [3] - Investment suggestions include 北方稀土 for rare earths, 金诚信 and 紫金矿业 for copper, and 中国宏桥 for aluminum [3] Group 4: Chemicals - The government is expected to promote the elimination of outdated capacity in the petrochemical industry, which could enhance industry competitiveness [4] - The current phase of evaluating the elimination of old chemical production capacity is anticipated to lead to a gradual optimization of supply [4] Group 5: Banking - 常熟银行 reported a 10.1% year-on-year increase in revenue to 6.06 billion yuan and a 13.5% increase in net profit to 1.97 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [7] - The bank's non-performing loan ratio remains low, and the provision coverage ratio is high, indicating strong resilience in earnings and profitability [7] Group 6: Internet Media - 哔哩哔哩 has significant potential for C-end paid user growth, with a focus on the commercialization of its advertising business and the launch of new gaming products [8] - The company is expected to maintain stable costs while projecting adjusted net profits of 2.15 billion yuan, 3.51 billion yuan, and 4.65 billion yuan for 2025-2027 [8] Group 7: Home Appliances - 海尔智家 is positioned as a leading global home appliance brand, with a notable upward trend in air conditioning operations for 2025 [9] - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 21.5 billion yuan, 24.3 billion yuan, and 27.3 billion yuan for 2025-2027, with a current price-to-earnings ratio of 11, 10, and 9 times respectively [9] Group 8: Electronics - 视源股份 continues to show revenue growth, although net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted downwards to 1.048 billion yuan and 1.239 billion yuan respectively [10] - The long-term growth potential remains strong, with a projected net profit of 1.486 billion yuan for 2027 [10] Group 9: Skincare - 林清轩 has established itself as a leading high-end skincare brand in China, with its camellia oil facial essence ranked first in retail sales among all facial essence products for 11 consecutive years [6] - The brand is recognized as the only domestic brand among the top 15 high-end skincare brands in China, according to 灼识咨询 [6]