20250723申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250723

Report Overview - Report Title: 20250723 Shenwan Futures Non-ferrous Metals Basis Daily Report [1] - Analyst: Li Ye - Qualification Number: F0285557 - Transaction Advisory Number: Z0002369 - Email: liye@sywgqh.com.cn - Phone: 021 - 50586241 Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Views - Copper prices may fluctuate within a short - term range due to the low concentrate processing fees, low copper prices testing smelting output, and a mix of positive and negative factors in downstream demand [2]. - Zinc prices may experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term as concentrate processing fees are rising, and there are expectations of improved concentrate supply and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Copper - Price Trend: Night - time copper prices closed higher. Short - term price may fluctuate within a range [2]. - Supply and Demand: Low concentrate processing fees and low copper prices challenge smelting output. Downstream demand in the domestic market is generally stable and positive, with the power industry showing positive growth, auto production and sales increasing, home appliance output growth slowing, and the real estate sector remaining weak [2]. - Market Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 79,670 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 165 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 9,898 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 68.24 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 122,075 tons with a daily decrease of 100 tons [2]. Zinc - Price Trend: Night - time zinc prices closed higher. Short - term price may have wide - range fluctuations [2]. - Supply and Demand: Concentrate processing fees are rising. Domestic auto production and sales are increasing, infrastructure is growing steadily, home appliance output growth is slowing, and the real estate sector is weak. The market expects significant improvement in concentrate supply this year and potential recovery in smelting supply [2]. - Market Data: The previous domestic futures closing price was 22,885 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 35 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,854 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 4.23 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 118,225 tons with a daily decrease of 875 tons [2]. Other Metals - Aluminum: The previous domestic futures closing price was 20,870 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was 50 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,652 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 1.88 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 434,425 tons with a daily increase of 3,725 tons [2]. - Nickel: The previous domestic futures closing price was 122,550 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 570 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 15,530 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 207.48 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 207,876 tons with a daily increase of 300 tons [2]. - Lead: The previous domestic futures closing price was 16,960 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 185 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 2,015 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was - 25.40 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 264,925 tons with a daily decrease of 3,475 tons [2]. - Tin: The previous domestic futures closing price was 267,250 yuan/ton, the domestic basis was - 670 yuan/ton, the previous LME 3 - month contract closing price was 33,920 dollars/ton, the LME spot premium was 85.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory was 1,885 tons with a daily decrease of 50 tons [2].