方正中期期货生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: The international raw sugar market is under pressure and may continue to fluctuate within a range. The domestic sugar market has a supply - demand gap, and the spot price is firm. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Paper pulp fundamentals change little, but may be driven by market sentiment. The global cotton market has a slight inventory build - up, and the domestic cotton market is in a game between supply tightening expectations and weak downstream consumption. The price increase is expected to slow down [3][4][6]. - Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector: Apple futures prices continue to oscillate at a high level, supported by overall commodity sentiment, the influence of the jujube market, and its own fundamentals. Jujube futures prices are in a wide - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather during the fruit - setting period in the producing areas [8][9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures - Apple 2510: Wait for opportunities to short at high prices. The consumption is average, and the initial production estimate for the new season is better than before, putting pressure on the overall futures price. Support range is 7300 - 7350, and pressure range is 7900 - 8000 [17]. - Jujube 2601: Hold long positions. The overall commodity sentiment is strong, and in the third quarter, jujubes enter the production - forming period, and the price is likely to rise due to weather concerns. Support range is 10200 - 10400, and pressure range is 10500 - 11500 [17]. - Soft Commodity Futures - Sugar 2509: Short - term band trading. Raw sugar has rebounded, the domestic spot price is firm, but import pressure restricts the price, and the futures price is expected to oscillate. Support range is 5750 - 5770, and pressure range is 5850 - 5870 [17]. - Pulp 2507: Temporarily wait and see. The fundamentals are stable, the finished paper price is weak, overseas prices are lowered, and the domestic re - inflation trading expectation is positive for pulp. Support range is 5000 - 5100, and pressure range is 5300 - 5400 [17]. - Cotton 2509: Hold long positions cautiously. The previous negative factors have been digested, the spot supply is expected to tighten, and crude oil prices affect the market. Support range is 13200 - 13300, and pressure range is 14400 - 14500 [17]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market - Fundamentals: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 3.70 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of July 16, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 80.60 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10.89 tons. As of July 17, it was 73.41 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 9.03 tons. The estimated national apple production is 3659.04 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%, but according to another estimate, the 2025 - 2026 production season shows a slight increase [18]. - Spot Market: In the Shandong production area, the mainstream transaction price is stable. In the northwest production area, early - maturing varieties are on the market, and the price is high [19]. - Jujube Market: As of July 18, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased slightly. Affected by the rising futures price, the spot price in each sales area increased slightly. The market is in the off - season, and the terminal demand is limited. Attention should be paid to the new - season production in the producing areas [20]. - Sugar Market: Brazil's sugar and molasses exports in the first three weeks of July 2025 increased by 9.78% year - on - year. As of Tuesday morning, the spot price of Guangxi sugar - making enterprises decreased to 6010 - 6040 yuan/ton [22]. - Pulp Market: The demand is weak, the supplier's quotation is firm, the port inventory is high, and the downstream paper - making market is in the off - season. Arauco lowered the price of its Uruguayan factory's bleached broadleaf pulp by 10 dollars/ton to 490 dollars/ton [25]. - Cotton Market: In June 2025, Pakistan's textile and clothing exports increased year - on - year. China's cotton imports in June 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month. As of July 15, the national commercial cotton inventory decreased [26][27]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market Review: Apple 2510 closed at 7929, up 0.08%; Jujube 2509 closed at 9485, up 1.23%; Sugar 2509 closed at 5823, down 0.27%; Pulp 2509 closed at 5368, up 0.64%; Cotton 2509 closed at 14225, up 0.28% [27]. - Spot Market Review: The spot price of apples was 3.90 yuan/jin, down 0.15 yuan month - on - month and 0.25 yuan year - on - year; jujubes were 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan month - on - month and 5.30 yuan year - on - year; sugar was 6050 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan month - on - month and 410 yuan year - on - year; pulp (Shandong Yinxing) was 5950 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 150 yuan year - on - year; cotton was 15549 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan month - on - month and 193 yuan year - on - year [30]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 spread is 126, unchanged month - on - month and up 41 year - on - year, expected to oscillate repeatedly, recommend waiting and seeing. - Jujube 9 - 1 spread is - 1005, down 960 month - on - month and down 670 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing. - Sugar 9 - 1 spread is 170, up 1 month - on - month and down 83 year - on - year, expected to oscillate within a range, recommend waiting and seeing [46]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, unchanged month - on - month and year - on - year. - Jujube: 8912 warehouse receipts, down 35 month - on - month and down 2808 year - on - year. - Sugar: 21359 warehouse receipts, down 78 month - on - month and up 5068 year - on - year. - Pulp: 255819 warehouse receipts, down 100 month - on - month and down 250723 year - on - year. - Cotton: 9436 warehouse receipts, down 65 month - on - month and down 2722 year - on - year [75]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific numerical or analytical content provided other than figure references.