方正中期期货新能源产业链日度策略-20250723

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The sentiment of lithium resource supply shortage has resurfaced, resonating with the current "anti - involution" market. The optimistic commodity atmosphere supports the strong performance of lithium salt spot and futures prices. For industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon, the "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, and the market has stronger expectations for future supply - side reforms, production control, and reduction. Although the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polycrystalline silicon are still weak, the main logic of the market operation lies in the "strong expectations" brought by policies [4][5][6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 First Part: Spot Prices 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation - For the lithium carbonate 09 contract, it is expected to operate in a volatile and relatively strong manner. The support level is 65,000 - 66,000, and the pressure level is 78,000 - 83,000. It is recommended to seize the opportunity for selling hedging, and downstream cathode material enterprises should pay attention to low - level stockpiling or buying hedging. For the industrial silicon 09 contract, with the high - rising "anti - involution" sentiment, it may maintain an upward trend in the short term. The support level is 8,900 - 9,000, and the pressure level is 9,900 - 10,000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach. For the polycrystalline silicon 08 contract, with the high - rising "anti - involution" sentiment, it may maintain an upward trend in the short term. The support level is 43,000 - 44,000, and the pressure level is 50,000 - 51,000. It is recommended to take a bullish approach [15] 3.1.2 Spot and Futures Price Changes - The closing price of lithium carbonate is 72,880, with a daily increase of 2.24%, a trading volume of 1,118,226, an open interest of 411,638, an open - interest increase of 30,453, and 10,089 warehouse receipts. The closing price of industrial silicon is 9,655, with a daily increase of 4.27%, a trading volume of 1,234,403, an open interest of 380,961, an open - interest decrease of 2,335, and 50,053 warehouse receipts. The closing price of polycrystalline silicon is 49,105, with a daily increase of 8.99%, a trading volume of 757,482, an open interest of 192,179, and 2,780 warehouse receipts [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: On Tuesday, the SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 68,877 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,136 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 69,100 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,100 yuan/ton. The average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 67,450 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1,100 yuan/ton. Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,115 tons, an increase of 302 tons from the previous week. The full - caliber sample inventory was 142,620 tons, an increase of 1,827 tons from the previous week, hitting a new historical high. The weekly apparent demand was 17,288 tons, reaching a high for the year, and the inventory - available days were 57.7 days [4] - Downstream Situation: No specific data provided, but only relevant figure references are given, such as the capacity of lithium iron phosphate, the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate devices, the monthly operating rate of SMM ternary materials, and the monthly output of lithium hexafluorophosphate [26][28] 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: The sentiment of "anti - involution" to manage the disorderly low - price competition in the market continues to ferment. The cost of industrial silicon has increased due to the significant rise in coal prices. In June, China's industrial silicon exports increased significantly year - on - year and month - on - month, reaching the highest monthly level since May 2024. Although the fundamentals are still weak, the market is expected to operate in a volatile and relatively strong manner [6] - Downstream Situation: No specific data provided, only relevant figure references are given, such as the monthly output of Chinese organic silicon DMC and the operating rate of aluminum alloys [37] 3.2.3 Polycrystalline Silicon Fundamental Data - Production and Inventory Situation: The sentiment of "anti - involution" to manage the disorderly low - price competition in the market continues to ferment. Although the supply - demand situation has not changed much and the oversupply situation persists, last week's inventory decreased because the rise in silicon material prices boosted the downstream's enthusiasm for picking up goods, and enterprises had a large volume of shipments for previous orders [8][9] - Downstream Situation: No specific data provided, only relevant figure references are given, such as the monthly output of silicon wafers and the monthly output of Chinese photovoltaic modules [46]