东方战略观察：关税扰动或被低估，中东局势波动风险再起

Group 1: Tariff Risks - The U.S. may implement a second round of tariff increases by late July to early August, depending on negotiation outcomes[6] - If U.S. financial markets show limited reaction to tariff actions, President Trump is likely to proceed with the scheduled tariff increases[6] - The focus on U.S. industry tariffs, particularly under Section 232, is expected to rise, with new investigations announced for drones and polysilicon[6] Group 2: Middle East Stability - The political environment in Israel is deteriorating, increasing the risk of instability in the Middle East[6] - Recent withdrawals from the ruling coalition by right-wing parties may lead to a loss of parliamentary majority for Netanyahu's government[6] - If the Israeli parliament is not dissolved by the end of July, there is a risk of aggressive policies being adopted by the Netanyahu government to salvage its political standing[6]