Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-07-23 03:02Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipbuilding industry, highlighting significant earnings growth for key companies in the sector [4][7]. Core Insights - Chinese shipbuilding companies, including China Shipbuilding, China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation, and China Shipbuilding Defense, have reported earnings growth exceeding expectations for the first half of 2025, with profit releases validated [4][9]. - New ship prices showed a downward trend from January to May 2025 but exhibited signs of stabilization in June, with a slight month-on-month increase [4][34]. - The implementation of the U.S. 301 trade policy has resulted in reduced pressure on the shipbuilding sector, with conditions favoring Chinese shipbuilders and potentially leading to a recovery in new orders and ship prices [4][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Shipbuilding Industry Core Changes - The shipbuilding market has experienced a significant decline in new orders in the first half of 2025, with a 54% year-on-year decrease in new orders totaling 19.38 million CGT [31][38]. - China maintained its position as the leading country for new ship orders, accounting for 56% of global deadweight tonnage in the first half of 2025 [47]. 2. Ship Price Updates - The new ship price index reached 187 points by the end of June 2025, reflecting a 1.08% decrease since the beginning of the year but a 0.22% increase month-on-month [34][34]. - The second-hand ship price index increased by 1.95% month-on-month, reaching 181 points, marking a 2.88% increase since the start of the year [34][34]. 3. High-Value Orders and Delivery - High-value orders are being delivered, with significant improvements in revenue and cost management for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Heavy Industry [8][9]. - The report notes that the delivery of high-value orders is expected to continue, contributing positively to the financial performance of the companies involved [9][10]. 4. U.S. 301 Trade Policy Impact - The final implementation of the U.S. 301 trade policy has shown a significant reduction in its initial intensity, alleviating pressure on the shipbuilding industry and allowing for potential recovery in new orders and ship prices [24][25]. - The new policy conditions are expected to favor Chinese shipbuilders, with a potential increase in orders returning to China from Japan and South Korea [24][25].