申银万国期货首席点评：我国外汇市场表现韧性，美国关税政策仍存扰动

Group 1: Report Summary - The report covers various industries including finance, energy, metals, black commodities, agriculture, and shipping [1][9][11] - It analyzes market performance, price trends, and influencing factors for different commodities and financial instruments [2][3][9] - Macroeconomic factors such as US tariff policies, central bank actions, and economic data are considered [2][9][14] Group 2: Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - The Chinese foreign exchange market shows resilience despite complex external situations [1] - Gold and silver may continue to be strong due to market risk aversion and long - term drivers [2][14] - Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC production, US inventory data, and trade tensions [3][11] - Steel prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand balance and cost factors [4][20] Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Main News - International News: Trump announced trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, including tariff adjustments and market access [5] - Domestic News: At the end of Q2, RMB real estate loan balances increased, while personal housing loan balances decreased slightly [6] - Industry News: Russia maintains its forecast for grain production and expects significant grain exports [7] 2. Outer - market Daily Returns - Various outer - market indices and commodities showed different price changes on July 22 compared to July 21, including gains in the S&P 500, London gold, and losses in ICE Brent crude [8] 3. Morning Comments on Major Varieties Financial - Stock Index: A - shares are considered to have high investment value in the medium - to - long term, with different indices having different characteristics [9] - Treasury Bonds: Long - term treasury bond prices are falling, and market funds are relatively stable. External policies and economic data affect the market [10] Energy and Chemical - Crude Oil: Prices are falling, affected by OPEC production increases, US inventory changes, and trade tensions [3][11] - Methanol: Short - term prices are expected to be bullish due to changes in production load and inventory [12] - Rubber: Prices may slowly rise due to supply - side factors, while demand - side support is weak [13] Metal - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are likely to remain strong, but there are risks of Trump's tariff threats being realized [2][14] - Copper: Prices may fluctuate within a range due to factors such as processing fees and downstream demand [15] - Zinc: Prices may have wide - range fluctuations, and attention should be paid to factors like US tariffs and production [16] - Lithium Carbonate: Short - term prices may be strong, but there is no basis for medium - term reversal [17] Black Commodities - Iron Ore: Prices may be strong in the short term due to demand support and supply - demand imbalances in the medium term [19] - Steel: Prices may continue to be volatile and strong in the short term due to supply - demand and cost factors [4][20] - Coking Coal and Coke: Prices may rise further in the short term but are likely to peak after late August [21] Agricultural Products - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term, affected by US soybean conditions and domestic supply [22] - Oils and Fats: Palm oil prices may be supported, and the overall market is expected to be in a volatile pattern [23] Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The market is in a weak state, and the peak of the seasonal peak season may be approaching [24]