养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soybeans (domestic), the auction of domestic soybeans was concluded at a premium, supporting the strengthening of the soybean No.1 price. With the new soybeans gradually entering the market, the supply is increasing. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of soybean No.1, focusing on the key pressure level of the 09 contract in the range of 4,250 - 4,300 yuan/ton and the support level in the range of 4,000 - 4,030 yuan/ton [3]. - Regarding peanuts, the expected low carry - over inventory of the old season, along with the impact of the civil unrest in Sudan and the delayed opening of the Port of Port Sudan, has led to a shortage of imported peanuts. The price of peanuts has rebounded from the low - level shock. However, with the alleviation of high - temperature conditions in Henan, the upward momentum of the futures price has weakened. The expected high yield and lower planting costs put pressure on the far - month contracts. It is recommended to reduce long positions in the 10 - contract at high levels and try short positions in the 11 and 01 contracts [3]. - In the case of soybean oil, the price decline is mainly due to the drop in crude oil and international oil prices. With sufficient supply and weak demand, it is recommended to consider closing long positions and observing for now [4]. - For rapeseed oil, although the inventory has declined from the peak but remains high. There is a certain expectation of inventory reduction. It is advisable to reduce long positions and pay attention to Sino - Australian and Sino - Canadian trade relations and the actual implementation of the US biodiesel policy [4]. - Concerning palm oil, there are positive factors in both supply and demand in Indonesia. However, due to the seasonal production increase and the expectation of inventory accumulation in the short - term, it is recommended to partially close long positions [5]. - Regarding soybean meal, the price increase is due to concerns about the far - month supply. The market shows a situation of "weak reality + strong expectation". It is recommended to hold long positions in the M2511 contract [5]. - For corn and corn starch, the prices are in a range - bound state. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7]. - In the case of live pigs, the futures price has rebounded. It is recommended that aggressive investors hold long positions in the 09 contract and buy the 2511 contract at low levels [8]. - Regarding eggs, the price has rebounded. It is recommended to avoid short - selling blindly, pay attention to the positive spread between the 9 - 1 contracts, and aggressive investors can buy the 09 contract at low levels [8][9]. Summary by Directory First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations 1. Market Judgment - The market logic of soybeans (domestic) includes premium - priced auctions and the gradual increase in supply. The 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly, and it is recommended to observe temporarily [3][12]. - For peanuts, the 10 - contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high levels and try short positions in the far - month contracts [3][12]. - Soybean oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate and adjust. It is recommended to close long positions [4][12]. - Rapeseed oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce long positions [4][12]. - Palm oil's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to partially close long positions [5][12]. - Soybean meal's 11 - contract is expected to rise. It is recommended to hold long positions [5][12]. - Rapeseed meal's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to hold long positions [6][12]. - Corn's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Corn starch's 09 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to reduce short positions at low levels [7][12]. - Live pigs' 09 contract is expected to rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions [8][12]. - Eggs' 09 contract is expected to find the bottom through fluctuations. It is recommended to buy at low levels [8][9][12]. 2. Commodity Arbitrage - For cross - period arbitrage, it is recommended to observe for most varieties such as soybeans, peanuts, and oils. However, a positive spread strategy is recommended for the 11 - 1 contract of soybean meal, and a positive spread strategy at low levels is recommended for live pigs and eggs [13][14]. - For cross - variety arbitrage, a bearish operation is recommended for the 09 soybean oil - palm oil spread, a bullish operation for the 09 rapeseed oil - soybean oil spread, and it is recommended to observe for other spreads [14]. 3. Basis and Spot - Futures Strategies - The report provides the spot prices, price changes, and basis changes of various commodities such as soybeans, oils, proteins, energy and by - products, and livestock [15]. Second Part: Key Data Tracking Table 1. Oilseeds and Oils - Daily Data: The report presents the import costs of soybeans, rapeseeds, and palm oil from different origins and different shipping periods, including arrival premiums, CBOT futures prices, CNF prices, and arrival - duty - paid prices [17][18]. - Weekly Data: It shows the inventory and operating rates of soybeans, rapeseeds, palm oil, and peanuts, as well as the inventory of related products such as soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil [19][20]. 2. Feed - Daily Data: The import costs of corn from Argentina and Brazil in different months are provided [20]. - Weekly Data: The data on the consumption, inventory, operating rate, and inventory of corn and corn starch in deep - processing enterprises are presented [20]. 3. Livestock - The daily and weekly data of live pigs and eggs, including spot prices, breeding costs, profits, slaughter data, and inventory data, are provided [21][23][24]. Third Part: Fundamental Tracking Charts - Livestock (Live Pigs and Eggs): Charts of the closing prices of the main contracts, spot prices, and related prices of live pigs and eggs are presented [26][27][28] - Oilseeds and Oils: Charts related to the production, export, inventory, and price spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and peanuts are provided [35][36][38] - Feed: Charts of the inventory, consumption, and processing profits of corn, corn starch, rapeseed meal, and soybean meal are presented [53][54][56] Fourth Part: Options Situation of Soybean Meal, Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the trading volume, open interest, and volatility of corn options, as well as historical and implied volatility, are provided [74] Fifth Part: Warehouse Receipt Situation of Feed, Livestock, and Oils - Charts of the warehouse receipts of rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, soybean oil, palm oil, peanuts, corn, corn starch, live pigs, and eggs are provided [76][77][78]