市场氛围偏暖，胶价延续反弹

Group 1: Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for RU and NR are cautiously bullish, and for BR is also cautiously bullish [4][6] Group 2: Core Views - The market atmosphere is warm, driving the improvement of demand expectations, and the rubber price continues the rebound trend. The profit of domestic latex is still better than that of making dry rubber from glue, and the increase of full latex is slow due to rainfall interference in domestic main producing areas. The raw material price strongly supports the domestic rubber price. The supply - side disturbances and the warm macro - atmosphere lead to the recent rebound of rubber prices. In the short term, the supply recovery pressure is limited, and the import pressure in China has decreased. The downstream semi - steel tire start - up rate has rebounded, but the terminal demand has no bright spots. Based on the good macro - atmosphere and short - term reduction of supply pressure, it is expected that the rubber price will continue the rebound trend, and the substantial improvement of the demand side should be focused on later [4][5] - For BR, the supply shows a month - on - month recovery trend, and the downstream tire factory start - up rate has rebounded after the previous maintenance, but it is difficult to continue to rise later. The supply pressure of upstream butadiene raw materials has decreased, and it is expected to maintain a strong operation, providing strong cost support for BR. The strong natural rubber makes the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber continue to expand, and the downstream replacement demand also supports BR [6] Group 3: Market News and Data Futures and Spot Prices - RU main contract closed at 15,060 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton from the previous day; NR main contract at 12,855 yuan/ton, up 105 yuan/ton. Yunnan - produced full latex in Shanghai market was 15,000 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan/ton; Qingdao Free Trade Zone Thai mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,820 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton; Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,750 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton. PetroChina Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 ex - factory price was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 market price was 11,900 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [1] Import and Export Data - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports were 463,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.21% and a year - on - year increase of 33.95%. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.1257 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 26.47%. In the first half of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports totaled 751,700 tons, an increase of 11.8% compared with the same period in 2024. In June, the export volume increased by 36.9% year - on - year and 13.3% month - on - month [2] Automobile Sales Data - In June this year, the retail sales of the national passenger car market were 2.084 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% and a month - on - month increase of 7.6%. In the first half of this year, the cumulative retail sales of the passenger car market were 10.901 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.8% [2] Group 4: Market Analysis Natural Rubber - Spot and Spread: On July 22, 2025, RU basis was - 60 yuan/ton (- 15), the spread between RU main contract and mixed rubber was 410 yuan/ton (+ 85), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 5,633 yuan/ton (+ 179.38), NR basis was 124.00 yuan/ton (- 35.00); full latex was 15,000 yuan/ton (+ 150), mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 80), 3L spot was 14,850 yuan/ton (+ 50). STR20 was quoted at 1,820 US dollars/ton (+ 20), the spread between full latex and 3L was 150 yuan/ton (+ 100); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,550 yuan/ton (+ 80) [3] - Raw Materials: Thai smoked sheet was 66.57 baht/kg (- 0.05), Thai glue was 54.80 baht/kg (+ 0.30), Thai cup lump was 49.75 baht/kg (+ 0.45), the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 5.05 baht/kg (- 0.15) [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of all - steel tires was 61.98% (+ 0.87%), and that of semi - steel tires was 68.13% (+ 2.34%) [3] - Inventory: The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,295,153 tons (+ 1,811.00), the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao Port was 634,586 tons (- 1,797), the RU futures inventory was 186,640 tons (- 2,050), and the NR futures inventory was 36,691 tons (- 303) [3] Butadiene Rubber (BR) - Spot and Spread: On July 22, 2025, BR basis was - 200 yuan/ton (- 5), the ex - factory price of butadiene from Sinopec was 9,600 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Qilu Petrochemical BR9000 was 12,000 yuan/ton (unchanged), the quotation of Zhejiang Chuanhua BR9000 was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 100), Shandong private - owned butadiene rubber was 11,800 yuan/ton (+ 50), and the import profit of butadiene rubber from Northeast Asia was - 840 yuan/ton (- 164) [3] - Operating Rate: The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.32% (- 1.22%) [3] - Inventory: The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,600 tons (+ 330), and the enterprise inventory of butadiene rubber was 25,650 tons (- 850) [3] Group 5: Strategy - For RU and NR, be cautiously bullish. For BR, also be cautiously bullish [4][6]