美联储独?性、关税担忧升温，?价冲

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The resonance of concerns about the Fed's independence and tariffs has driven the upward movement of precious metals. The last deadline of August 1st for the US to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and the uncertainty of US - EU trade negotiations, along with the potential damage to the Fed's independence, have led to a surge in precious metal prices. Gold broke through $3400 per ounce on Tuesday night, and silver exceeded its previous high of $39.06 per ounce [2][4]. - In the short - term, investors are focusing on the next Fed resolution. If economic risks intensify, the expectation of an early interest rate cut may support gold. In the long - term, due to the third international public goods crisis since the Pax Britannica, with risks in tariffs, geopolitics, and the monetary system in 2025 echoing those of the last century, and the Fed's independence being damaged, gold is favored. For silver, domestic anti - involution and infrastructure projects may boost its elasticity, and investment demand is expected to drive the further repair of its valuation [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - The US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated on Monday that the Trump administration is more concerned about the quality of trade agreements than their timing. August 1st is the last deadline for countries to reach a trade agreement with the US, or they will face high tariffs [3]. - China's bank settlement and sales of foreign exchange recorded a surplus for two consecutive months in June, with the surplus expanding to $25.4 billion, the highest in nine months, supported by surpluses in goods trade and securities investment settlement and sales of foreign exchange. The current truce in the Sino - US trade war and China's good foreign trade performance are conducive to maintaining the balance of settlement and sales of foreign exchange [3]. - EU diplomats said that as the prospect of reaching an acceptable trade agreement with Washington fades, the EU is exploring broader counter - measures against the US [3]. - US President Trump and China discussed the possibility of a summit between the two heads of state during Trump's visit to Asia later this year [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said there is no sign that Powell should resign now, but if he wants to leave early, he can do so [3][4]. Price Logic - The breakthrough of precious metal prices is mainly due to the August 1st deadline for the US to impose a 30% tariff on the EU and the uncertainty of US - EU trade negotiations. The statement of Treasury Secretary Bessent about Powell's possible early departure and the call for a review of the Fed's non - monetary policy activities, along with internal differences within the Fed and accusations against Powell, have damaged the Fed's independence and intensified the risk - aversion sentiment [4][8]. Outlook - Pay attention to US real estate data, the Fed's interest rate expectations, and changes in trade frictions. The weekly COMEX gold price is expected to be in the range of [3250, 3450], and the weekly COMEX silver price is expected to be in the range of [36, 45] [9].