中信期货晨报：国内商品期货多数上涨，玻璃涨超9%-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][3][7] 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents a comprehensive analysis of the macro - economic situation, both overseas and domestic, and provides short - term judgments on various futures products. Overseas, the fundamentals are relatively stable, but there are uncertainties in tariff policies and Fed policy. Domestically, the economy shows resilience, and there are expectations for policy support. For assets, there are structural opportunities in the domestic market, and long - term weak dollar trend is expected overseas [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas Macro: The overseas fundamentals are relatively stable. The new Fed chairman's nomination may affect the interest - rate cut expectation, and the US tariff policies are expected to be implemented in early August. The US consumer confidence recovered in June, driving a slight rebound in CPI and retail sales data [7] - Domestic Macro: China's Q2 economic data showed resilience, with GDP and export growth exceeding market expectations. High - frequency data indicates an improvement in the investment side. As the Politburo meeting approaches, there are expectations for domestic demand - boosting policies. Current growth - stabilizing policies focus on using existing resources, and incremental policies are more likely in Q4 [7] - Asset View: There are mainly structural opportunities in domestic assets. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and incremental policies are more likely to be implemented in Q4. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions, Fed policies, and geopolitical risks. In the long - term, the weak dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation of resources such as gold and copper is recommended [7] 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: Positive expectations for the "anti - involution" policy are difficult to be falsified, but there is a lack of incremental funds, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - Stock Index Options: Market sentiment fluctuates, and selling options dominate the market. Option liquidity continues to deteriorate, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] - Treasury Bond Futures: The bond yield curve continues to steepen. Attention should be paid to factors such as unexpected tariffs, supply, and monetary easing, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals continue to adjust. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to be volatile [8] 3.2.3 Shipping - Container Shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8] 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel Products: Market expectations continue to improve, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8] - Iron Ore: Port arrivals decreased month - on - month, and port inventories remained stable. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port inventories, and policy dynamics [8] - Coke: A second round of price increases is approaching, and the market is expected to be volatile, considering factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment [8] - Coking Coal: The market was pulled up by macro - stimuli, and the coking coal futures price exceeded 1,000 yuan. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment [8] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The sector performed strongly, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on raw material costs and steel procurement [8] - Manganese Silicon: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on cost prices and overseas quotes [8] - Glass: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to heat up, and spot prices start to follow. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on spot sales [8] - Soda Ash: Concerns about aging facilities are rising, and the spot and futures markets are rising in tandem. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on soda ash inventories [8] 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: The implementation time of US tariffs on copper may be advanced, and the Shanghai copper price is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, the Fed's less - dovish stance, and domestic demand recovery [8] - Alumina: The scale of warehouse receipts registration needs to be observed, and the alumina market is expected to decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on factors such as unexpected delays in ore复产 and excessive electrolytic aluminum复产 [8] - Aluminum: The inventory accumulation rhythm is fluctuating, and the aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - risks, supply disruptions, and insufficient demand [8] - Zinc: The rebound of the black sector boosted the zinc price, and short - selling opportunities are recommended. The market is expected to decline, with attention on macro - risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [8] - Lead: Cost support is stable, and inventories are accumulating. The lead price is expected to be volatile, with attention on supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [8] - Nickel: The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse has been opened, and the nickel price is expected to decline in the long - term. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policies, and supply shortages [8] - Stainless Steel: The nickel - iron price is weak, and the stainless - steel market is expected to be volatile, with attention on Indonesian policies and unexpected demand growth [8] - Tin: The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and the tin price has strong bottom support. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on the复产 expectations in Wa State and demand improvement [8] - Industrial Silicon: The silicon price has rebounded under the "anti - involution" sentiment, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8] - Lithium Carbonate: Supply disruptions are being hyped, and the lithium carbonate market is expected to be volatile, with attention on insufficient demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs [8] 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Supply pressure remains, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The market is expected to decline, with attention on OPEC+ production policies and the Middle East geopolitical situation [10] - LPG: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on cost factors such as crude oil and overseas propane [10] - Asphalt: The asphalt futures price valuation has entered a severely overvalued stage, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on unexpected demand [10] - High - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is under great downward pressure, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The low - sulfur fuel oil market is expected to decline following crude oil, with attention on crude oil and natural gas prices [10] - Methanol: Domestic methanol production has continued to decline, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10] - Urea: The domestic supply - demand situation is unbalanced, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10] - Ethylene Glycol: The basis has stabilized, and devices are restarting. The market is expected to rise, with attention on ethylene glycol inventories [10] - PX: Crude oil prices are stable, and the PX market is expected to be volatile, with attention on crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10] - PTA: Supply - demand has weakened, and the cost of PX is strong. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on polyester production [10] - Short - Fiber: The basis has declined, and processing fees have rebounded. The market is expected to rise, with attention on terminal textile and clothing exports [10] - Bottle Chips: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on future bottle - chip production [10] - PP: Maintenance support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - Plastic: Spot support is limited, and the market is expected to be volatile, with attention on oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - factors [10] - Styrene: There is no clear driving force, and the market is expected to decline, with attention on oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10] - PVC: Market sentiment has cooled, and the PVC market is expected to be weak. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on expectations, costs, and supply [10] - Caustic Soda: Spot prices have peaked, and the caustic soda market is expected to be volatile, with attention on market sentiment, production, and demand [10] 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and Fats: Palm oil continues to lead the rise in oils and fats, but attention should be paid to inventory accumulation pressure in the producing areas. The market is expected to rise, with attention on US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10] - Protein Meal: After China and Australia signed a trade memorandum of understanding, the double - meal market declined slightly. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade frictions [10] - Corn/Starch: Spot supplies are locally tight, and the futures price is expected to be weak. The market is expected to decline, with attention on insufficient demand, macro - factors, and weather [10] - Pigs: Pig supplies are sufficient, and prices are under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10] - Rubber: There may be weather - related speculation, but the amplitude is expected to be limited. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10] - Synthetic Rubber: The market rebounded after a decline. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on significant crude oil price fluctuations [10] - Pulp: The market is dominated by macro - factors, and the pulp price is in a stalemate. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on macro - economic changes and US dollar - based price quotes [10] - Cotton: The cotton price has increased with increased positions, and the 14,000 - yuan mark is being tested. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on demand and production [10] - Sugar: The sugar price is fluctuating within a narrow range. The market is expected to be volatile, with attention on abnormal weather [10] - Logs: The fundamental contradictions are not significant, and the short - term market is expected to be volatile. The market is expected to decline, with attention on shipping and delivery volumes [10]