供需利好不断，??强势上涨

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Most of the varieties in the black building materials industry are rated as "oscillating", with some showing "oscillating and strengthening" trends. Specific varieties and ratings include: steel (oscillating and strengthening), iron ore (oscillating and strengthening), scrap steel (oscillating), coke (oscillating and strengthening), coking coal (oscillating and strengthening), glass (oscillating), soda ash (oscillating), ferrosilicon (oscillating and strengthening), and ferromanganese (oscillating and strengthening) [8][9][12][13][15][16] 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, both supply and demand sides of the black building materials industry have introduced stimulus policies. The Yajiang Hydropower Project has enhanced the expectation of infrastructure development, and there are news of over - production inspections in coal mines. The price of black building materials has continued to rise significantly. The mid - stream is actively replenishing stocks, resulting in a shortage of spot resources. Although the terminal demand has not reached the peak season for verification, the macro - environment is favorable, and it is expected that the prices will oscillate at a high level. The subsequent focus will be on policy implementation and the performance of terminal demand during the off - season [1][2] 3. Summary by Variety Steel - Core logic: The "anti - involution" sentiment continues to ferment, there are disturbances in the coal supply side, and the cost support is strong. The expectation of stable growth in ten key industries such as steel has increased, and the start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project has brought positive demand expectations. The macro - sentiment is warming up, speculative demand is released periodically, and the spot price is rising. Last week, the supply and demand of rebar both decreased, and inventory began to accumulate; the supply of hot - rolled coils decreased while demand increased, and inventory started to decline; the supply and demand of the five major steel products both decreased, and inventory decreased slightly. The inventory is at a relatively low level in history, and the fundamental contradictions in the off - season are not obvious. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of steel in the off - season are not obvious. With strong support from furnace materials under the background of high hot metal production, positive news keeps emerging, and the macro - sentiment continues to warm up. The futures price is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is expected to oscillate and strengthen in the short term [8] Iron Ore - Core logic: Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased, which is in line with expectations. On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel enterprises has slightly increased, and the hot metal output of steel enterprises has rebounded more than expected, remaining at a high level year - on - year. The port inventory of iron ore has remained stable, the berthing volume has decreased, the steel mill inventory has slightly increased, and the total inventory has slightly decreased. Recently, there have been many positive news, the market sentiment is good, and with a good fundamental situation, the futures price is expected to oscillate and strengthen. - Outlook: The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the supply is stable. There is limited negative driving force in the fundamentals. Before the market sentiment weakens, the price is likely to rise and difficult to fall [2][8] Scrap Steel - Core logic: The supply of scrap steel is tight this week as the arrival volume has decreased. On the demand side, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and full - process steel mills has slightly decreased, but the profit of electric furnaces has improved, which may drive the resumption of production of electric furnaces. The hot metal output of blast furnaces has slightly increased, the price of iron ore has risen significantly, the cost - effectiveness of scrap steel has recovered, and the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process steel mills has increased significantly. The total daily consumption of scrap steel in long and short processes has rebounded. The inventory of steel mills has slightly accumulated. The fundamentals of scrap steel are stable, and recently, driven by the macro - sentiment, the black plate has oscillated upwards, and the spot price of scrap steel has followed the upward trend. - Outlook: The demand for scrap steel is at a high level, and resources are tight. It is expected that the price will follow the trend of the plate [9] Coke - Core logic: Yesterday, coke producers in the production areas initiated the second round of price increases for coke. Affected by the rumor of coal mine over - production inspections, the market sentiment was high, and the main coke contract hit the daily limit. On the supply side, although the first - round price increase was implemented last week, the continuous sharp rise in coal prices has compressed the profit margin of coke enterprises, and coke production is under pressure. On the demand side, the high hot metal output supports rigid demand, steel mills have good profits, high production enthusiasm, and are actively replenishing stocks. At the same time, the futures price is significantly higher than the spot price, and futures - cash traders are actively diverting supplies, resulting in a continuous decline in the coke inventory of coke enterprises. - Outlook: The demand for coke is strong, the cost support is strong, and the market sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [12] Coking Coal - Core logic: Yesterday, the news of coal mine over - production inspections spread in the market, triggering expectations of supply - side changes. Some coal mines in the main production areas that were previously shut down due to maintenance or accidents are gradually resuming production, but there are still coal mines with production restrictions due to maintenance and underground problems, and domestic coal supply is still subject to disturbances. The China - Mongolia port has fully resumed customs clearance, and the customs clearance efficiency of Mongolian coal is gradually increasing. The demand for coking coal is strong, downstream enterprises are actively replenishing stocks, and the inventory of some coal types is in short supply, and the coal mine inventory is continuously decreasing. - Outlook: The upstream coal mines are still reducing inventory, the spot market is generally strong, and with the warming market sentiment, it is expected that the futures price will oscillate and strengthen in the short term [3][11][12] Glass - Core logic: The demand for glass in the off - season is declining, and the demand for deep - processing products has continued to weaken month - on - month. This week, downstream enterprises generally replenished stocks at the beginning of the month, and the production and sales were good, but the sustainability remains to be observed. After the futures price rises, it may stimulate speculative demand. On the supply side, there are still two production lines waiting to produce glass, and the daily melting volume is still on the rise. The upstream inventory has slightly decreased, and the internal contradictions are not prominent, but the market sentiment is highly volatile. Recently, the "anti - involution" sentiment has increased, and the market's concern about supply - side production cuts has risen. After the price increase today, downstream and mid - stream enterprises continue to purchase, and manufacturers have raised prices accordingly. - Outlook: The actual demand is weak, but the policy expectation is strong, and the speculative demand is high. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the pace and intensity of policy introduction. If the policy continues to exceed expectations, the downstream expectation may improve, and there may be a wave of inventory - replenishing price increases. In the long term, market - oriented production capacity reduction is still needed, and the glass market is expected to oscillate [13] Soda Ash - Core logic: Affected by the continuous increase in the "anti - involution" sentiment, the futures price has risen, driving the spot price to follow the upward trend. On the supply side, the production capacity has not been cleared, and there is still long - term pressure. Although some soda ash plants are under maintenance today and the overall output has decreased, the supply pressure still exists. On the demand side, the demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement, and the demand for light soda ash has recovered, but the overall downstream demand is still poor, mainly for periodic inventory replenishment. - Outlook: The oversupply situation has not changed. There are planned maintenance activities in July, and supported by the "anti - involution" sentiment, it is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall in the short term. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote production capacity reduction [15] Ferromanganese - Core logic: After the release of the energy bureau's over - production inspection document, the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, and the bullish sentiment in the black market has risen again. The ferromanganese futures price has continued to strengthen, and the spot price has been further raised. On the cost side, coke has entered the price - increase cycle, strengthening the cost support for ferromanganese. The market sentiment is positive, port miners are actively supporting prices, and the price of manganese ore is firm. On the supply side, the profitability of manufacturers has improved, the driving force for resumption of production has increased, and the daily output of ferromanganese has continued to rise for 8 weeks. - Outlook: The fundamental contradictions of ferromanganese are not significant at present. Recently, the market bullish sentiment is high. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the main production areas [16] Ferrosilicon - Core logic: After the futures price of coking coal hit the daily limit yesterday afternoon, the valuation of carbon elements has increased, strengthening the cost support expectation for ferrosilicon. The futures price of ferrosilicon has risen significantly, and the spot price has been further raised. On the supply side, although the industry profit has been repaired recently, the pace of resumption of production of manufacturers is slow, but there is room for an increase in the industry's operating rate in the future. On the demand side, the steel output remains at a relatively high level, and the downstream steel - making demand is still resilient. In the metal magnesium market, the trading activity has increased, magnesium producers are actively supporting prices, and the price of magnesium ingots has been raised. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship of ferrosilicon is currently healthy. Recently, the market sentiment is positive. It is expected that the futures price will follow the trend of the plate and strengthen in the short term. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production of ferrosilicon manufacturers [17]