商品多头情绪强化，胶价重心继续上移

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and fats: Oscillation [5] - Protein meal: Oscillation [6] - Corn/starch: Oscillation [6] - Pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [7] - Natural rubber: Oscillation [8] - Synthetic rubber: Oscillation [10] - Cotton: Oscillation [11] - Sugar: Oscillation [12] - Pulp: Oscillation with a bullish bias [14] - Logs: Oscillation with a bearish bias [15] 2. Core Views of the Report - Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. Yesterday, rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market due to the good growth of US soybeans. The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments in protein meal. Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Synthetic rubber prices continue to rise following the overall commodity trend. Pulp investment should follow the macro trend and go long. Low inventory supports cotton prices, while increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment [1]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - View: US soybeans are growing well, and rapeseed oil led the decline in the oils and fats market yesterday. - Industry Information: As of July 20, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. - Logic: US soybeans may decline due to expected rainfall, and domestic oils and fats oscillated lower yesterday. The macro environment shows a weakening US dollar and stable crude oil prices. The US soybean good - to - excellent rate is still at a relatively high level, and the market expects a bumper harvest. The demand for US soybean oil in biodiesel is expected to increase, and domestic soybean oil inventories are rising. Palm oil production is in the increasing season, with expected inventory accumulation. Rapeseed oil inventories are high but slowly decreasing. - Outlook: The oils and fats market is facing multiple factors. Recently, the pressure of correction has increased, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of technical support below [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - View: The recovery of oil refinery profit margins may stimulate production, and attention should be paid to the risk of high - level adjustments. - Industry Information: On July 22, 2025, the international soybean trade premiums and discounts showed different changes, and the average profit of Chinese imported soybean crushing increased. - Logic: Internationally, the US soybean good - to - excellent rate is slightly lower than expected, with a risk of low precipitation in the next 15 days. The US soybean export outlook is worrying, but Brazilian soybean premiums are rising. Domestically, the spot price follows the futures, but the basis weakens slightly. Soybean arrivals increase, and the refinery operating rate rises, leading to an increase in soybean meal inventory. In the long term, the consumption of soybean meal may increase steadily. - Outlook: The domestic double - meal futures are stronger than US soybeans, and the basis is expected to be weak. Oil refineries can sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises can buy basis contracts or price at low prices. Hold long positions at 2900 [6]. 3.1.3 Corn - View: Corn arrivals are at a low level, and spot prices are oscillating strongly. - Industry Information: The average domestic corn price increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the main contract closing price increased by 0.09%. - Logic: As the trade sector actively sells grain, the supply in ports and deep - processing industries decreases. It is expected that the supply of old crops will tighten further from July to August, and prices may rebound in some areas. However, downstream demand is weak, and the market has digested the bullish factors. Recently, due to weather and previous overselling, spot prices have rebounded. New - season corn production is normal, and there is an expectation of increased supply and decreased prices in the second half of the year. - Outlook: In the short term, there is uncertainty in old - crop de - stocking, and prices may rebound. After the new - crop listing, there is a downward driving force [6][7]. 3.1.4 Pigs - View: There is an abundant supply of pigs, and the futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. - Industry Information: On July 22, the spot price of pigs in Henan decreased by 0.35%, and the futures closing price increased by 0.10%. - Logic: In the short term, the supply of groups of pigs is accelerating, and farmers still have the sentiment to fatten pigs. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets has been increasing, and the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the second half of the year. In the long term, the production capacity is still high, but the government is guiding the industry to adjust. The demand is not strong, and there is still sentiment for secondary fattening among farmers. - Outlook: The market is oscillating with a bullish bias. The supply - side adjustment policy has a positive impact on the market, but the supply pressure in the third quarter remains. Attention should be paid to the implementation of policies [7]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - View: Commodity bullish sentiment is strengthening, and the center of rubber prices continues to move up. - Industry Information: The prices of various rubber products showed different changes on July 22. - Logic: The commodity market is strong, and the bullish sentiment continues. Natural rubber follows the upward trend, and its fundamentals are currently stable. On the supply side, Asian production areas are affected by the rainy season, and the supply is limited. On the demand side, the operating rate of some tire enterprises has recovered, and the demand is stable. In the third quarter, there may be de - stocking transactions, and rubber prices may rise further if the macro sentiment remains positive. - Outlook: In the short term, it is easy to rise and difficult to fall following the overall commodity sentiment. Attention should be paid to changes in capital sentiment [8][9]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The futures market continues to rise following the overall commodity trend. - Industry Information: The prices of butadiene rubber and butadiene showed different changes. - Logic: The market is mainly driven by the macro environment. In terms of fundamentals, there are no major changes. The price of butadiene has been oscillating strongly, and downstream demand is good, with no obvious supply pressure. The short - term price center may rise further. - Outlook: It will generally maintain range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to changes in production facilities [10]. 3.1.7 Cotton - View: Low inventory supports cotton prices. - Industry Information: As of July 22, the number of registered warrants and the closing price of Zhengzhou cotton futures showed changes. - Logic: In the 2025/2026 season, the supply of cotton is expected to be loose. It is currently the off - season for downstream demand, and enterprises' operating rates are declining, with a slight increase in finished - product inventory. However, the de - stocking speed of cotton is fast, and the supply is tight before the new - crop listing. In the short term, low inventory supports prices, but the risk of a pull - back is increasing. In the medium term, prices may be under pressure after the new - crop listing. - Outlook: The market is oscillating. Low inventory supports prices, but the upward resistance is increasing [11]. 3.1.8 Sugar - View: Increased imports add upward resistance to sugar prices. - Industry Information: On July 22, the closing price of Zhengzhou sugar futures decreased. - Logic: In the 2025/2026 sugar - making season, the global sugar supply is expected to be loose, with production increases expected in major producing countries. Domestic sales are fast, and industrial inventories are decreasing. However, imports have been increasing since May, and Brazil is entering the peak production and export period. - Outlook: In the long term, sugar prices have a downward driving force and are expected to oscillate weakly. In the short term, there is a lack of bullish factors, and the market is expected to oscillate. Attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. 3.1.9 Pulp - View: The investment should follow the macro trend and go long. - Industry Information: The prices of various pulp products showed different changes. - Logic: The pulp futures have been rising recently, mainly driven by the macro environment. The supply - demand situation is weak, and the upward driving force comes from the macro aspect. On the supply side, the US dollar price is falling, and overseas pulp mill inventories are high. On the demand side, downstream paper production and sales are increasing, but the price performance reflects poor market expectations. In the short term, the macro environment drives the price up, and the valuation support weakens after the rebound. In the medium term, there is pressure from high imports, and the supply is expected to be abundant. - Outlook: The pulp futures are expected to oscillate strongly due to a favorable macro environment and relatively low valuation [13][14]. 3.1.10 Logs - View: Logs are running strongly due to a favorable macro environment. - Logic: The log market has filled the previous gap and is oscillating around 840. Technically, it maintains an upward trend. Fundamentally, port inventory has decreased, but the short - term circulation pressure of deliverable goods has increased, and the ability of processing plants to receive goods has decreased. The import volume from New Zealand has decreased, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be weak in the medium term. Although it is the off - season, the overall demand this year is stable. The new foreign quotation has increased, which reflects the strong willingness of domestic traders to buy at low prices. - Outlook: The market is oscillating with a bearish bias. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of high - price CFR and the change in the volume of deliverable goods. Speculators are advised to wait and see, and industrial players can participate in hedging according to their costs [15][17]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring - This section mainly lists various varieties such as oils and fats, corn, pigs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis content is provided in the given text. 3.3 Rating Standards - Bullish: Expected increase greater than 2 standard deviations. - Oscillation with a bullish bias: Expected increase between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - Oscillation: Expected increase or decrease within plus or minus 1 standard deviation. - Oscillation with a bearish bias: Expected decrease between 1 - 2 standard deviations. - Bearish: Expected decrease greater than 2 standard deviations. - Time Period: Next 2 - 12 weeks. - Standard Deviation: 1 standard deviation = 500 - trading - day rolling standard deviation / current price [175]