沪铜日评：国内铜治炼厂7月检修产能或环减国内电解铜社会库存量初现下降-20250723

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that the approval of the US stablecoin - related bill, the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, fluctuations in overseas copper mine production or transportation, and the decline in the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory may lead to a cautiously bullish trend in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors hold their previous long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - Shanghai Copper Futures: On July 22, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,740, up 40 from the previous day; the trading volume was 73,257 hands, down 6,755; the open interest was 166,726 hands, up 29,109; the inventory was 25,507 tons, down 2,670 [2]. - London Copper: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on July 22 was 9,888, up 31 from the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 124,850 tons, a decrease of 124,850 compared to the previous day [2]. - COMEX Copper: The closing price of the active copper futures contract on July 22 was 5.768, up 0.19 from July 18. The total inventory was 243,781 tons, up 944 [2]. Information - Production and Export: In June, the overall terminal demand was good. Although the export volume of many refined copper rod enterprises decreased, the overall demand in the Southeast Asian market remained stable, and the domestic deep - processing transfer demand increased. In July, with the decline in copper prices, the foreign trade market improved, and SMM expected the export volume of refined copper rod wires to recover in July. The production of Anglo Asian Mining's Denirli copper mine is expected to increase by the end of this year, with an expected output of 4,000 tons in 2025 and 15,000 tons after 2026 [2]. - Macro - economy: The US Senate passed a stablecoin - related bill, allowing pension funds and other assets to invest in gold, digital currencies, etc. The import tariff increased the commodity price, leading to a slight increase in the inflation rate of US consumer goods in June. The RPP annual rate of US production adjustment in June was 2.3%, lower than expected and the previous value, increasing the expectation of Powell's early departure and the Fed's interest - rate cut, which raised the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September or December [3]. Investment Strategy - Upstream: The China copper concentrate import index is negative but has increased compared to last week. The port copper concentrate throughput (inbound, outbound, and inventory) in the world (China) has decreased compared to last week. Although there are some factors restricting the supply of scrap copper, the opening of the refined copper import window and the transit supply from countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Thailand may lead to an increase in the domestic scrap copper production (import) in July. Some smelters have production problems, while some new projects are under construction or expected to be put into operation [5]. - Downstream: The daily processing fee for refined copper rods for power and enameled wires in East China has increased compared to last week. Affected by the traditional off - season of consumption and the Sino - US tariff issue, the capacity utilization rate and production volume of domestic steel enterprises in July may decline, but the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [5].