能源化策略日报：??品种?幅反弹，煤炭和煤化?将延续强势-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The black varieties in the domestic market have risen significantly, bringing a positive atmosphere to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" issued on July 20th has made coal and coal - chemical products favored by the market. The rise in futures prices has led to concentrated replenishment in the industrial chain, and the polyester industry has seen a reduction in inventory pressure and support for near - month contracts of polyester raw materials [1][2]. - The oil market is currently in a stage of coexistence of long and short factors. Crude oil supply is gradually increasing, while the strength of diesel continues. Different energy and chemical products have different trends, with some being affected by cost, some by supply - demand relationships, and others by macro - environment and geopolitical factors [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Overview - The energy and chemical market was boosted by key factors such as "anti - involution" and "stable growth" on Tuesday. Iron ore futures reached a five - month high, and several glass and soda ash varieties hit the daily limit. The US Treasury Secretary will hold the third - round talks with China next week, possibly discussing China's purchase of crude oil from Russia [1]. 2. Sector Logic - The sharp rise of domestic black varieties has brought benefits to the energy and chemical industry. The "Notice on Promoting the Stable and Orderly Supply of Coal" has made coal and coal - chemical products popular. The rise in futures prices has led to replenishment in the polyester industry, with some enterprises having a filament sales - to - production ratio of up to 1000%, reducing inventory pressure and supporting polyester raw material near - month contracts [2]. 3. Variety Analysis Crude Oil - It operates under pressure at high levels, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances. The current situation is a balance between strong refinery operations and supply pressure, with oil prices expected to fluctuate. The Brent first - line monthly spread has dropped from a maximum of $1.77/barrel on June 19th to $0.8/barrel [1][8]. LPG - The support from the cost side is weakening, the fundamental situation of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures may oscillate weakly [3]. Asphalt - The spot price of major producers has fallen, and the high - valued asphalt futures price has declined following crude oil. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the accumulation of Asian crude oil floating storage are putting pressure on asphalt prices. The current asphalt is over - valued compared to other products, and its price is expected to decline [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - There is a large downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The expected increase in heavy - oil supply and the decrease in power - generation demand are negative factors [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - It follows crude oil and oscillates weakly. The supply is expected to increase and demand to decline, and it is affected by green - fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution [12]. Methanol - Boosted by the coal sector, methanol oscillates and strengthens [3]. Urea - There is a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The short - term sentiment is boosted, and exports support the market. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [3]. Ethylene Glycol - Supported by the macro - environment and the rise of the coal - chemical sector, it is affected by the restart of domestic devices and the concentration of incoming goods [18][19]. PX - Although the cost raw materials are weak, the domestic commodity sentiment is warm. It lacks upward drivers and is expected to oscillate [13]. PTA - It has limited drivers and is affected by cost and macro - sentiment. The supply - demand fundamentals are weakening, and processing fees are under pressure [14]. Short - Fiber - There are limited industrial contradictions, and it follows cost fluctuations. The supply - demand pattern is oversupplied, and the inventory has slightly increased [21]. Bottle Chip - The increase in polymerization cost supports the valuation. It is expected to follow cost fluctuations [22]. PP - Driven by factors such as stable growth, infrastructure expectations, and the rise of coal, it oscillates and rises [3]. Propylene - It had a good first - day performance and may oscillate after a significant increase [3]. Plastic - Supported by factors such as stable growth in the petrochemical industry, infrastructure expectations, and coal, it oscillates and strengthens [3]. Pure Benzene - The balance sheet has improved, but port inventory has started to accumulate again. It is expected to oscillate horizontally [14]. Styrene - It follows the market sentiment and may oscillate strongly in the short term. The supply - demand situation is expected to weaken, and the port inventory has increased [17][18]. PVC - The expectation of cost increase is strong, and it is cautiously optimistic in the short term. However, the medium - and long - term fundamentals are under pressure [35]. Caustic Soda - Driven by strong expectations but weak in reality, it has a weak rebound. The market sentiment is warm, but the spot price has reached a peak [36][37]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - Inter - period Spreads: Different varieties have different inter - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 0.84 with a change of 0.01, and PX's 1 - 5 - month spread being 40 with a change of - 20 [38]. - Basis and Warehouse Receipts: Each variety has its own basis value, change, and number of warehouse receipts. For example, the basis of asphalt is 236 with a change of 38, and the number of warehouse receipts is 82300 [39]. - Inter - Variety Spreads: There are different inter - variety spread values and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 438 with a change of - 84, and the 1 - month TA - EG spread being 331 with a change of - 26 [40].