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现货供应紧张,豆粕偏强震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-07-23 05:27
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Views - For soybean meal, although the sown area of new - season US soybeans has decreased, high yields are expected to maintain a bountiful harvest. In China, oil mills are accumulating inventory, while the aquaculture industry is in a seasonal consumption off - season. The supply is relatively loose, but the soybean meal futures price rose last week due to macro - sentiment. Policy changes and new - season soybean growth need attention [1][2] - For corn, in China, after a wave of concentrated grain sales in the main producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on - demand. The import corn auction turnover rate has declined, weakening its impact on market prices [3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3086 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2736 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton (+0.33%) [1] - Spot: Tianjin's soybean meal spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jiangsu's was 2890 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangdong's was 2880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. Fujian's rapeseed meal spot price was 2680 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton [1] - US Information: As of July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the expected 71%. As of July 17, the US soybean export inspection volume was 36.5 tons [1] Market Analysis - US: Future weather in major US soybean - producing areas is favorable, and high yields are expected to offset the reduction in sown area [2] - China: Oil mills are accumulating inventory, and the aquaculture industry is in a consumption off - season. Feed enterprises purchase on - demand. The supply is loose, and spot prices are stable, but the futures price rose due to macro - sentiment [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2322 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (+0.09%); the corn starch 2509 contract was 2668 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.15%) [3] - Spot: Liaoning's corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Jilin's corn starch spot price was 2740 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Other Information: As of July 17, the harvest of Brazil's second - season corn was 55%, and the expected total output was 1.363 billion tons. US wheat export inspection volume in the week of July 17 was 73.2 tons, up 64.7% week - on - week and 152.0% year - on - year [3] Market Analysis - Supply: After concentrated grain sales in major domestic producing areas, the trade inventory has decreased, and the available corn in the market has reduced [4] - Demand: Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and purchase on - demand. Deep - processing enterprises also purchase on - demand, with narrow price adjustments [4] - Policy: The turnover rate of imported corn auctions has decreased, weakening its impact on market prices [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]