去产能预期带动上涨氛围

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of plants in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of methanol plants in China in operation for over 20 years accounts for 8%. The expectation of capacity reduction has driven up the chemical market, but the methanol spot price has been slow to follow, and the basis has continued to weaken. Overseas methanol plants are operating at a high level, leading to high pressure on China's imports and a rapid increase in port inventories. For downstream MTO, the maintenance plans of some MTO plants have not been implemented, and attention should be paid to the progress of production reduction in late July. The short - term situation at ports remains weak. In the inland areas, coal - based methanol plants are undergoing short - term centralized maintenance, with the operating rate at a short - term low, but it will gradually recover by the end of the month. The traditional downstream shows strong demand, with MTBE showing stronger - than - expected resilience and acetic acid operating at a stable rate. Inland methanol plant inventories have decreased again, indicating that the inland market is stronger than the port market [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period spreads, including the basis between methanol in different regions (such as Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) and the main futures contract, as well as the spreads between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01). The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [7][9][22] 3.2 Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China (PP&EG type), and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [26][27][31] 3.3 Methanol Operation and Inventory - The total port inventory of methanol, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated plants), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated plants) are presented in figures. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [34][35][37] 3.4 Regional Price Differences - Figures show regional price differences such as the difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia, and the differences between other regions. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [39][46][49] 3.5 Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan. The data sources are from Flush and Huatai Futures Research Institute [50][52][60] 4. Market News and Important Data 4.1 Inland Market - Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos is priced at 450 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 615 yuan/ton (unchanged). Inland methanol prices vary by region: Inner Mongolia North Line is 1990 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 133 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan); Inner Mongolia South Line is 1990 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2335 yuan/ton (up 35 yuan), with a basis of 78 yuan/ton (down 11 yuan); Henan is 2170 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), with a basis of - 87 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan); Hebei is 2190 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of - 7 yuan/ton (down 46 yuan). The inventory of inland plants is 352340 tons (down 4560 tons), and the inventory of plants in the northwest is 218000 tons (down 10000 tons). The pending orders of inland plants are 243119 tons (up 21879 tons), and those of plants in the northwest are 113600 tons (up 13600 tons) [1] 4.2 Port Market - Methanol in Taicang is priced at 2412 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan), with a basis of - 45 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan); CFR China is 275 US dollars/ton (up 2 US dollars), and the import price difference in East China is - 20 yuan/ton (down 2 yuan). Methanol in Changzhou is 2410 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 2410 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan), with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton (down 36 yuan). The total port inventory is 790200 tons (up 71300 tons), with the inventory in Jiangsu ports at 454000 tons (up 59000 tons), in Zhejiang ports at 180000 tons (up 4500 tons), and in Guangdong ports at 106000 tons (down 6000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 85.10% (up 0.27%) [2] 4.3 Regional Price Differences - The price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is 15 yuan/ton (up 30 yuan); the difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is - 128 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan); the difference between Taicang and southern Shandong is - 173 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan); the difference between southern Shandong and Taicang is - 177 yuan/ton (up 21 yuan); the difference between Guangdong and East China is - 182 yuan/ton (down 4 yuan); the difference between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is - 23 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [2] 5. Strategy - Unilateral: Buy on dips for hedging - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads when the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread is high - Cross - variety: Shrink the spread between PP2601 and 3MA2601 when it is high [4]