供需格局稳定，油脂延续震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. The supply - demand structure of oils is stable, the expectation of loose supply remains unchanged, and with the support of biodiesel, the prices will continue to oscillate [3] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract yesterday was 8,926.00 yuan/ton, a change of +16 yuan or +0.18% compared to the previous day. The closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8,076.00 yuan/ton, a change of -16.00 yuan or -0.20%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9,477.00 yuan/ton, a change of -86.00 yuan or -0.90% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 8,960.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10.00 yuan or +0.11%, with a spot basis of P09 + 34.00, a change of -6.00 yuan. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,210.00 yuan/ton, a change of -20.00 yuan/ton or -0.24%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 134.00, a change of -4.00 yuan. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,580.00 yuan/ton, a change of -80.00 yuan or -0.83%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 103.00, a change of +6.00 yuan [1] Market News - Russia cuts its 2025 wheat production forecast to 88 - 90 million tons from 90 million tons and its 2025/26 market - year wheat export forecast to 43 - 44 million tons from 45 million tons [2] - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 reached 1.26 million tons, a high level, but the inventory rose to an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. Kenya became the second - largest buyer of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of 2025, and is expected to import 1.3 million tons for the whole year. Shipments from July 1 - 20 are estimated at 486,404 tons, down 35.99% from the same period last month [2] - China's soybean imports in May and June hit record highs, leading to a short - term accumulation of soybean stocks. Since July, with the decline in imported soybean arrivals and high crushing volume, soybean stocks have declined for two consecutive weeks and are at the lowest level in nearly two months. As of the end of the 29th week of 2025, the total inventory of imported soybeans was 6.832 million tons, a decrease of 272,000 tons from last week [2]