氧化铝的仓单博弈仍在继续

Report Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously Bullish [7] - Alumina: Neutral [7] - Aluminum Alloy: Cautiously Bullish [7] Core Views - The seasonal off - peak season for electrolytic aluminum is obvious. The downstream start - up rate has declined, and social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend. In the long run, supply is limited and consumption has stable growth. The current rise in aluminum prices lacks fundamental support, but the long - term outlook remains optimistic [3] - The alumina supply is in a slight surplus. The total inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market is strong in the short term. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the game over warehouse receipts continues. The long - term surplus expectation remains [5] - The aluminum alloy is in the consumption off - peak season. The price follows the aluminum price, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] Summary by Category Aluminum - Price Data: On July 22, 2025, the Yangtze River A00 aluminum price was 20,940 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 20,900 yuan/ton, up 155 yuan/ton (0.75%) [1] - Inventory Data: As of July 21, 2025, the domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot social inventory was 498,000 tons. As of July 22, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 438,450 tons, up 4,025 tons from the previous day [1] - Market Analysis: The seasonal off - peak season is obvious, downstream start - up rate has declined, and processing fees face losses. Social inventory shows a slight accumulation trend, and long - term supply is limited while consumption has stable growth [3] - Strategy: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading and conduct Shanghai Aluminum positive arbitrage [7] Alumina - Price Data: On July 22, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, Shandong was 3,210 yuan/ton, Guangxi was 3,290 yuan/ton, and the Australian alumina FOB price was 370 US dollars/ton. The alumina main contract closed at 3,513 yuan/ton, up 201 yuan/ton (6.07%) [2] - Market Analysis: The supply is in a slight surplus, total inventory accumulation is accelerating, but the spot market is strong in the short term. The cost of bauxite is under pressure, and the game over warehouse receipts continues [5] - Strategy: Neutral for unilateral trading [7] Aluminum Alloy - Price Data: On July 19, 2025, the Baotai civil raw aluminum purchase price was 15,200 yuan/ton, and the mechanical raw aluminum purchase price was 15,500 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The ADC12 Baotai quotation was 19,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory Data: The aluminum alloy social inventory was 37,200 tons, up 5,800 tons week - on - week. The factory inventory was 63,900 tons, down 7,000 tons week - on - week, and the total inventory was 101,100 tons, down 1,200 tons week - on - week [2] - Market Analysis: It is in the consumption off - peak season, the price follows the aluminum price, and the cost supports the price. Attention should be paid to cross - variety arbitrage opportunities [6] - Strategy: Cautiously bullish for unilateral trading, and conduct long AD11 and short AL11 arbitrage [7]