黑色建材日报：煤矿供应扰动，商品估值抬升-20250723

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: The strategy for steel is to be bullish with oscillations. [2] - Iron ore: The strategy for iron ore is to oscillate. [4] - Coking coal and coke: The strategies for coking coal and coke are both to be bullish with oscillations. [7] - Thermal coal: There is no investment strategy provided for thermal coal. [9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market sentiment is positive, and the prices of steel, iron ore, coking coal, and coke are all showing upward trends. The supply of coal is facing disturbances, which has led to an increase in the valuation of commodities. [1][3][5][8] - The steel market is in the off - season for consumption, but the de - stocking performance is slightly better than the seasonal expectation. The plate shows strong consumption resilience. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment, and the implementation of policies and demand changes need to be followed up. [1] - In the iron ore market, under the influence of macro - policies, the market speculative sentiment has improved significantly, and the supply and demand fundamentals are good in the short term. However, in the long term, the supply and demand are still relatively loose. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply of coking coal is tight, and the demand for coke is strong. The second - round price increase of coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of a third - round increase. [6] - In the thermal coal market, the price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and the market sentiment at ports is weak. The supply is expected to change, and the future supply and demand are expected to be tight. [8] Group 3: Summaries According to Related Catalogs Steel - Market Analysis: The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3,264 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil contract was 3,431 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the futures market increased significantly, and the spot price followed the increase. The national building materials trading volume was 126,000 tons. [1] - Supply and Demand Logic: The building materials are in the off - season, with slightly increased inventory and slightly decreased production. The plate maintains a pattern of strong supply and demand. Policy benefits have stimulated the market sentiment. [1] - Strategy: The strategy for a single - side position is to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [2] Iron Ore - Market Analysis: The price of the iron ore futures contract 2509 closed at 823.0 yuan/ton, with a 2.49% increase. The price of imported iron ore in Tangshan ports continued to rise, but the trading sentiment was cold. The total transaction volume of main ports was 1.233 million tons, a 30.20% increase from the previous day, and the forward - spot transaction volume was 920,000 tons, a 42.50% decrease. [3] - Supply and Demand Logic: Macro - policies have increased disturbances, and the market speculative sentiment has improved. The supply has strong support, and the global shipment has increased. The demand is guaranteed as the molten iron production remains high, and the inventory at ports has not increased significantly. In the long term, the supply and demand are relatively loose. [3] - Strategy: The strategy for a single - side position is to oscillate. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [4] Coking Coal and Coke - Market Analysis: The prices of black varieties all rose. The coking coal futures had multiple contracts hitting the daily limit. The second - round price increase of coke spot was implemented, and there was an expectation of a third - round increase. The price of Mongolian coking coal continued to rise. [5][6] - Supply and Demand Logic: The supply of coking coal is tight due to restricted coal mine production. The demand for coke is strong as steel mills' profits are good and the molten iron production remains high. The trading volume of spot coking coal and coke has increased. [6] - Strategy: The strategies for coking coal and coke for a single - side position are both to be bullish with oscillations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options. [7] Thermal Coal - Market Analysis: The price increase of pit - mouth coal has slowed down, and some coal mines' prices have decreased. The market sentiment at ports is weak, and the trading volume is small. The price of imported coal is high, but the trading activity is low. [8] - Supply and Demand Logic: Some coal mines have resumed production, and the supply is gradually being released. With the continuous high temperature, the demand is expected to strengthen. The market expects future supply and demand to be tight. [8] - Strategy: There is no investment strategy provided. [9]