Great Wall Securities·2025-07-23 05:34Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry, indicating expectations for the industry to perform better than the market in the next six months [4][63]. Core Insights - The national electricity consumption in June 2025 increased by 5.4% year-on-year, with total consumption reaching 867 billion kilowatt-hours [3][36]. - The Yarlung Tsangpo River downstream hydropower project has commenced, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan [3][37]. - The national power load reached a historical high of 1.5 billion kilowatts on July 16, 2025, marking a significant increase compared to previous records [3][38]. Market Performance - The Shenwan Public Utilities Index fell by 1.37% during the week of July 14-20, 2025, underperforming compared to the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.06 percentage points [2][12]. - The industry valuation as of July 18, 2025, shows a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 17.2, down from 17.43 the previous week, and a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 1.73, down from 1.75 [1][23][26]. Stock Performance - Top-performing stocks for the week included Mindong Electric (+6.75%), Jiufeng Energy (+5.52%), and Langfang Development (+4.79%) [2][29]. - Underperforming stocks included Wanqing Energy (-9.25%), Shaoneng Shares (-7.04%), and Huayin Electric (-6.53%) [2][29]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the ongoing trend of stable coal prices, with the Qinhuangdao Shanxi mixed coal price at 634 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.6% [3][42]. - The report also notes the significant trading volumes in green certificates, with a total of 17.42 thousand wind power and 6.43 thousand photovoltaic power certificates traded from July 14 to July 20, 2025 [3][45]. Recommendations - For thermal power, the report suggests a long-term view on demand-side supply and peak regulation, with expectations for stable profit margins [7]. - For hydropower, it recommends positioning in relatively undervalued leading stocks during times of reduced risk appetite [8]. - In the green energy sector, the report advises focusing on leading companies and regions with declining electricity prices [8].