化工普涨氛围，EB基差进一步走弱

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The recent theme in the chemical sector is the rectification expectation of installations in operation for over 20 years. The capacity of such installations in pure benzene and styrene accounts for 18% and 8%, respectively. The futures of pure benzene (BZ) and ethylbenzene (EB) follow the overall upward trend in the chemical industry, but the spot prices struggle to keep up, leading to a further decline in the EB basis. The BZ futures maintain a premium, and there is still pressure on pure benzene port inventory. The short - term demand for BZ downstream is okay, but the high - operating CPL and styrene operations are starting to decline. For styrene, the port inventory is rising rapidly, with domestic EB operation slightly decreasing but still at a relatively high level. The EPS operation is increasing, but the inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics may drag down future operations [3] Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Pure benzene: The main basis is - 258 yuan/ton (- 27), and the spot - M2 spread is - 55 yuan/ton (+ 10 yuan/ton). The near - month BZ paper cargo - far - end BZ2603 futures are advised to do reverse arbitrage when the price is high [1][4] - Styrene: The main basis is 4 yuan/ton (- 64 yuan/ton), and the EB2509 - 2510 inter - period reverse arbitrage is recommended [1][4] 2. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The CFR China processing fee is 174 dollars/ton (+ 10 dollars/ton), and the FOB Korea processing fee is 158 dollars/ton (+ 11 dollars/ton). The US - Korea spread is 125.0 dollars/ton (- 13.0 dollars/ton). The processing fee continues to be in a weak consolidation [1][3] - Styrene: The non - integrated production profit is - 46 yuan/ton (- 80 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress. The EB - BZ spread is recommended to be narrowed when the price is high [1][4] 3. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene: The port inventory is 17.10 million tons (+ 0.70 million tons), and the operating rate of downstream products shows a mixed trend. The domestic operation is still at a relatively high level, and the pressure of Korean exports to China remains [1][3] - Styrene: The East China port inventory is 150,700 tons (+ 12,200 tons), and the East China commercial inventory is 56,200 tons (+ 11,200 tons). The operating rate is 78.3% (- 0.9%). The domestic EB operation slightly decreases but is still at a relatively high level [1][3] 4. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS: The production profit is 140 yuan/ton (+ 74 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 53.18% (+ 2.12%) [2] - PS: The production profit is - 110 yuan/ton (+ 124 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 50.60% (- 0.50%) [2] - ABS: The production profit is 294 yuan/ton (+ 39 yuan/ton), and the operating rate is 65.90% (+ 0.90%). The inventory pressure of the three major hard plastics continues, which may drag down future operations [2][3] 5. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam: The production profit is - 1920 yuan/ton (- 10), and the operating rate is 91.72% (- 4.00%) [1] - Phenol - acetone: The production profit is - 693 yuan/ton (- 25), and the operating rate is 81.00% (+ 3.00%) [1] - Aniline: The production profit is - 97 yuan/ton (+ 74), and the operating rate is 75.86% (+ 4.96%) [1] - Adipic acid: The production profit is - 1543 yuan/ton (+ 16), and the operating rate is 64.80% (- 0.90%) [1]