政策及情绪影响较大，工业硅多晶硅触及涨停

Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Cautiously bullish [3] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks [8] Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, with positive macro - factors, improved supply - demand fundamentals, and price increases in downstream products, the industrial silicon price has room for further growth if it is benchmarked against the full cost [3]. - For polysilicon, after the continuous increase in spot prices, they have stabilized. The futures price is above the full cost of most enterprises, and there may be room for growth if considering the recovery of storage, merger, and acquisition funds. In the medium - to - long - term, it is suitable to buy on dips [8]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - Futures Market: On July 22, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price hit the daily limit. The main contract 2509 opened at 9345 yuan/ton and closed at 9655 yuan/ton, a change of 5.98% from the previous settlement price. The position of the main contract 2509 was 380961 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50053 lots, a decrease of 88 lots from the previous day [1]. - Supply Side: The spot price of industrial silicon rose. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9600 - 9800 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton), and the price of 421 silicon was 9800 - 10100 yuan/ton (up 200 yuan/ton) [1]. - Consumption Side: Affected by the strong drive of industrial silicon on the cost side and the supply concerns caused by an incident at a Shandong organic silicon factory, the prices of organic silicon products increased across the board. For example, the market price of DMC rose to 11600 - 12500 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1200 yuan/ton [2]. Polysilicon - Futures Market: On July 22, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures hit the daily limit, opening at 45880 yuan/ton and closing at 49105 yuan/ton, with a closing price change of 8.99% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 192179 lots, and the trading volume on that day was 757482 lots [4]. - Spot Market: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers decreased. The latest statistics showed that the polysilicon inventory was 24.90 (a month - on - month change of - 9.78%), and the silicon wafer inventory was 16.02GW (a month - on - month change of - 5.70%) [6]. Strategy Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish - Other Strategies: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish, but need to be aware of correction risks - Other Strategies: No suggestions for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [8][9] Influencing Factors Industrial Silicon - The resumption of production and new capacity in the Northwest and Southwest regions [5] - Changes in the start - up of polysilicon enterprises [5] - Policy disturbances [5] - Macro and capital sentiment [5] - The start - up situation of organic silicon enterprises [5] Polysilicon - The impact of industry self - regulation on the start - up of upstream and downstream enterprises [9] - The driving effect of futures listing on the spot market [9] - The impact of capital sentiment [9] - Policy disturbances [9]