政策端持续驱动，氯碱盘面上行

Group 1: Market News and Key Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the main PVC contract was 5,260 yuan/ton (+142), the East China basis was -200 yuan/ton (-82), and the South China basis was -160 yuan/ton (-42) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 5,060 yuan/ton (+60), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 5,100 yuan/ton (+100) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 535 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,830 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 112 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide method production was -315 yuan/ton (+130), the gross profit of PVC ethylene method production was -595 yuan/ton (+26), and the PVC export profit was -13.8 US dollars/ton (-9.0) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory PVC inventory was 36.8 tons (-1.4), the social PVC inventory was 41.1 tons (+1.8), the operating rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 77.52% (+0.59%), the operating rate of the PVC ethylene method was 68.31% (-1.92%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 74.97% (-0.10%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 69.6 tons (+0.6) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,658 yuan/ton (+89), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was -64 yuan/ton (-89) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 830 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,340 yuan/ton (-30) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,603 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 459.5 yuan/ton (-120.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 557.53 yuan/ton (+50.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,448.33 yuan/ton (+30.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 38.39 tons (+0.96), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.40 tons (+0.04), and the operating rate of caustic soda was 82.60% (+2.20%) [2] - Downstream operation of caustic soda: The operating rate of alumina was 83.61% (+0.33%), the operating rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 58.89% (+0.00%), and the operating rate of viscose staple fiber was 84.55% (+6.75%) [2] Group 2: Market Analysis PVC - Policy impact: The upcoming release of the steady - growth work plan for ten key industries such as steel, non - ferrous metals, petrochemicals, and building materials has boosted the PVC market sentiment. The proportion of PVC production devices with a production time of more than 20 years is about 12%, which has led to market expectations of eliminating old - fashioned production capacity [3] - Fundamental analysis: The upstream operation has slightly declined but remains at a high level. There are expectations of new production capacity coming on stream from July to August, so the supply - side pressure is high. The domestic demand of downstream industries remains weak, the operating rate of downstream products has continued to decline month - on - month and is lower than the same period last year; the short - term export situation is neutral. The social inventory continues to accumulate, and the absolute inventory value is high. The supply - demand fundamentals of PVC are still weak, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [3] Caustic Soda - Policy impact: The evaluation of old - fashioned devices in the petrochemical and chemical industries has led to expectations that caustic soda devices that have reached the designed service life or have been in operation for more than 20 years may gradually withdraw from the market, which has significantly boosted market sentiment. Coupled with the further weakening of the liquid chlorine price, the caustic soda futures price has risen significantly [3] - Fundamental analysis: On the supply side, there are few new overhauls upstream, and some chlor - alkali devices that previously reduced production due to poor liquid chlorine sales have gradually increased their loads. The overall operating rate has increased month - on - month, and there are still expectations of new production coming on stream from July to August. On the demand side, the profit of the main downstream alumina industry has expanded, the operation has continued to pick up, and the amount of liquid caustic soda supplied to the main downstream has increased. There is still short - term rigid demand support; non - aluminum demand continues to be weak in the off - season. The factory inventory of caustic soda has increased month - on - month, and the inventory is higher than the same period. With the increase in the load of chlor - alkali production reduction enterprises, the inventory pressure is expected to increase [3] Group 3: Strategies PVC - Single - side strategy: Cautiously go long for hedging; due to the boost of macro - sentiment, the futures price is expected to continue to rise in the short term [4] - Inter - delivery strategy: Do reverse spreads when the V09 - 01 spread is high [4] Caustic Soda - Single - side strategy: Cautiously go long for hedging; with the further weakening of liquid chlorine, the cost support for caustic soda has strengthened. In the short term, the futures price is driven by the expectation of eliminating old - fashioned production capacity, and the macro - sentiment is boosted. The caustic soda futures price is expected to continue to be strong [5]