丙烯期货上市价格走强

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The chemical industry is affected by policies to eliminate backward production capacity. The market sentiment is positive, and commodity prices are rising, driving up the prices of propylene and polyolefins [3]. - Propylene is expected to shift from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation after capacity reduction, but supply pressure will increase as refinery operations recover, while downstream demand is also gradually recovering [3]. - For polyolefins, policies have a certain boosting effect on the market. Although production maintenance eases some supply - demand pressure, upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising. Cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains sluggish, with an expected increase in supply and inventory in the future [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the trend of the propylene futures main contract, the basis between East China and the main contract, the basis between North China and the main contract, and the basis between Northwest China and the main contract, as well as the market prices in East China and Shandong [10][11]. 2. Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers propylene processing fees, capacity utilization rates, production margins from different production methods (PDH, MTO, naphtha cracking), and the capacity utilization rate of methanol - to - olefins and the operating rate of crude oil refineries [15][19][26]. 3. Propylene Import and Export Profits - Involves price differences between South Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia and China, and propylene import profits [31][35]. 4. Propylene Downstream Profits and Operating Rates - Includes the production profits and operating rates of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43]. 5. Propylene Inventory - Consists of propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [61]. 6. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Comprises the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between East China LL and the main contract, and between East China PP and the main contract [65][69]. 7. Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based) and PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), PE and PP operating rates, weekly production, and maintenance losses [74][80][82]. 8. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Differences - Includes price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and price differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [87][94][95]. 9. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - Involves LL and PP import and export profits, and price differences between different regions and China [101][113]. 10. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Profits - Includes the operating rates and production profits of PE downstream (agricultural film, packaging film, winding film) and PP downstream (plastic weaving, BOPP film, injection molding) [124][125][131]. 11. Polyolefin Inventory - Consists of inventory in oil - based and coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports for both PE and PP [133][138][146]. Strategies - Unilateral: Bullish on propylene in the short term [4]. - Inter - period: Reverse spread for PL01 - 05 [4]. - Inter - commodity: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4].