国金期货烧碱日报-20250723

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View - This week, caustic soda futures prices fluctuated and consolidated, while spot prices rose slightly in some areas. The supply shortage situation has been alleviated to some extent due to the resumption of production of previously overhauled plants. There is no significant boost from the demand side, and the off - season of non - aluminum demand continues. Traders and downstream users are resistant to high - priced caustic soda. It is expected that caustic soda prices may fluctuate weakly next week. Attention should be paid to the changes in the liquid chlorine subsidy price in North China and the operating rate of chlor - alkali enterprises in the future [10]. 3) Summary by Directory a) Futures Market - This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week. The closing price of the main contract was 2469 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.08% from last week. The trading volume and open interest both decreased. The trading volume was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] million lots from last week, and the open interest was [X] million lots, a decrease of [X] lots from last week [2][4][8]. b) Spot Market Analysis - Supply: As of July 17, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 82.6%, a week - on - week increase of 2.2%. The capacity utilization rates in North China, East China, Northeast China, and South China increased to varying degrees, while that in Central China decreased due to the low price of liquid chlorine [4]. - Inventory: As of July 17, 2025, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda in enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 38.39 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.56% [4]. - Non - aluminum Demand: Some viscose staple fiber plants in Shandong restarted this week, increasing the capacity utilization rate. The comprehensive operating rate in the printing and dyeing industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remained unchanged [6]. c) Futures - Spot Combination Analysis - Spot Market: This week, the spot price of liquid caustic soda strengthened slightly in some areas, with price increases in North China and East China, and remained stable in other markets [8]. - Futures Market: This week, the caustic soda futures price reached a high and then declined, with narrow fluctuations during the week, and both trading volume and open interest decreased [8]. d) Associated Product Analysis - Upstream Raw Materials: The price of raw salt and electricity remained stable, and the production cost remained basically unchanged [8]. - Downstream Products: The recent start - up of alumina has increased, mainly to replenish previous long - term contracts. The overall spot market is tight, and some enterprises and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. There is no significant change in non - aluminum downstream demand. The subsidy for the by - product liquid chlorine decreased this week, and the overall chlor - alkali profit increased [8].