Group 1 - The report highlights that in the first half of 2025, China's CPI and PPI showed a downward trend, with CPI averaging -0.1% and PPI averaging -2.8%, indicating a decline compared to 2024 [1][10] - The report discusses the characteristics of deflation, which is defined as a continuous decline in money supply and prices, leading to economic recession, and emphasizes the self-reinforcing nature of deflationary cycles [3][11] - The report outlines the responses of Japan and the United States to deflationary pressures, including Japan's fiscal expansion and introduction of inflation targets, and the U.S.'s monetary easing and fiscal stimulus during the 2008 financial crisis [4][15][26] Group 2 - The report forecasts a mild recovery in CPI for the second half of 2025, while PPI is expected to remain low but with a narrowing decline [5][33] - In the first half of 2025, CPI was influenced negatively by food and transportation costs, with food prices dragging down CPI by an average of -0.24 percentage points [35][40] - The report notes that PPI remained in negative territory, averaging -2.77%, primarily due to weak demand in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, as well as international price declines [42][44] Group 3 - The report provides a structural analysis of CPI and PPI, indicating that high-weight categories such as food and housing significantly impact overall inflation, with food prices being a major drag on CPI [49][50] - It highlights that despite consumption stimulus policies, the overall inflation level remains low, as the effects of these policies have not translated into widespread price increases [44][51] - The report emphasizes that the structural characteristics of CPI and PPI are shaping the current inflation environment, with persistent low demand and external economic pressures limiting price recovery [44][45]
低利率时代系列（七）：从国际到本土：物价低迷应对策略及中国趋势分析
Soochow Securities·2025-07-23 06:33