光大期货能化商品日报-20250723

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Oil prices continued to decline for the third consecutive trading day due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The current crude oil market lacks clear drivers and will continue to fluctuate. EU - US trade negotiations and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts are attracting attention [1][9]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened further, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market continues to face supply pressure. It is advisable to hold the spread short - position for low - sulfur fuel oil [1][3]. - The asphalt market has limited supply increments. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates narrowly following the cost - end crude oil. Short - term long positions can be considered after the oil price stabilizes [3]. - The polyester market is affected by the restart of some devices. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state. The EG price is supported in the short term, and the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - The rubber market has increased in recent days due to raw material support and the macro - environment. However, investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [4]. - The methanol market has an increase in inventory. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand. If the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - The PVC market has a slight improvement in enterprise operations, but demand has not improved significantly. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Tuesday, the WTI August contract closed down $0.99 to $66.21 per barrel, a 1.47% decline; the Brent September contract closed down $0.62 to $68.59 per barrel, a 0.90% decline; SC2509 closed at 503.5 yuan per barrel, down 2.8 yuan per barrel, a 0.55% decline. API data showed that as of the week ending July 18, US crude oil inventories decreased by 577,000 barrels, Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 314,000 barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.228 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 3.48 million barrels. The market is waiting for the EU - US trade negotiation results, and OPEC and IEA's demand forecasts for 2025 are attracting attention. The market lacks clear drivers, and the oil price will fluctuate [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.1% at 2,924 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil main contract LU2510 closed down 0.8% at 3,581 yuan per ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil has weakened, and the high - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure. The expected arrival volume from Europe in July will increase by 300,000 - 400,000 tons, and Singapore is expected to receive about 2.1 - 2.2 million tons of Western low - sulfur fuel oil in July, higher than 1.7 - 1.8 million tons in June. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is facing supply pressure from stable Middle - East shipments. The LU - FU spread has narrowed, and it is advisable to hold the spread short - position [1][3]. - Asphalt: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 1.42% at 3,657 yuan per ton. In August, northern demand will be further released, and some refineries' production enthusiasm has increased. However, refineries without crude oil quotas have no production plans due to negative profits, and some refineries in Shandong will be under maintenance in mid - August. The supply increment is limited. The demand is affected by rainfall, but there is supportive potential after the rainy season. The single - sided driver is not obvious in the short term, and it mainly fluctuates following the cost - end crude oil [3]. - Polyester: TA509 closed at 4,794 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.29%; the spot offer was at a premium of 3 yuan per ton to the 09 contract. EG2509 closed at 4,447 yuan per ton, up 0.84%, with the basis decreasing by 10 yuan per ton to 60 yuan per ton, and the spot price was 4,490 yuan per ton. The PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6,886 yuan per ton, up 0.35%. A 200,000 - ton/year synthetic - gas - to - ethylene - glycol plant in Shanxi has restarted and produced products, and a 300,000 - ton/year plant in Inner Mongolia is restarting and is expected to produce products around the end of July. The terminal is in a bottom - building and oscillating state, and the EG price is supported in the short term, while the TA price will fluctuate strongly following the cost [3][4]. - Rubber: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2509 rose 165 yuan per ton to 15,060 yuan per ton, the NR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,855 yuan per ton, and the butadiene rubber BR main contract rose 105 yuan per ton to 12,100 yuan per ton. Typhoon Webb has shifted northward, but it is still rainy in Hainan, Yunnan, and Vietnam. The output is blocked, and processing plants have difficulty in collecting latex. The Thai raw material price has increased, and the demand is stable. The price has increased recently, but investors should be cautious when chasing high prices [4]. - Methanol: The Taicang spot price was 2,412 yuan per ton on Tuesday, the Inner Mongolia northern - line price was 1,990 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was $270 - 274 per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was $328 - 333 per ton. The Iranian device load has recovered to the high point, and the arrival volume has increased. The downstream profit has recovered, and the subsequent start - up is expected to remain stable, with inventory continuing to increase. The current market - priced coal supply has decreased, and the methanol price will fluctuate strongly [4]. - Polyolefins: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 7,050 - 7,150 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 400.04 yuan per ton, the profit of coal - based PP production was 741.07 yuan per ton, and the profit of methanol - based PP production was - 702 yuan per ton. For PE, the price of HDPE film was 7,924 yuan per ton, the price of LDPE film was 9,403 yuan per ton, and the price of LLDPE film was 7,355 yuan per ton. The polyolefin market will gradually transition to a state of strong supply and demand, and if the cost end does not decline significantly, the downside space is limited [6]. - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Tuesday, the East China PVC market offer rose slightly, with the calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 5,000 - 5,100 yuan per ton, and the ethylene - based material at 4,950 - 5,300 yuan per ton. The North China PVC market price was adjusted narrowly, and the South China PVC market price was firm. The enterprise operation has recovered, but the demand has not improved significantly. The basis and monthly spread have widened recently, and the arbitrage space has gradually opened. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines due to excessive short - term market news [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Data on the basis of various energy - chemical products on July 23, 2025 are provided, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and the latest basis rate quantiles in historical data for multiple products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [7] 3.3 Market News - The US is in urgent trade negotiations with its partners. The crude oil price has declined for three consecutive trading days due to the weakening market risk - preference sentiment. The EU - US trade negotiation deadline is August 1. If no agreement is reached, the US will impose a 30% tariff on most EU export products [9]. - The Canadian Prime Minister has lowered the expectation of reaching a trade agreement with the US in the next 10 days. The US has threatened to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods not covered by the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement if no agreement is reached by August 1 [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [11][13][15] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts show the basis of main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, etc. [24][26][30] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts show the spreads of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [38][40][43] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Charts show the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy - chemical products, including crude oil internal - external spreads, B - W spreads of crude oil, high - low sulfur spreads of fuel oil, fuel oil/asphalt ratios, etc. [55][60][61] - 4.5 Production Profits: Charts show the production profits of various energy - chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, LLDPE production profit, etc. [64][65][67]