黑色商品日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most black commodities are expected to run strongly or fluctuate strongly in the short term due to positive policy news, improved market sentiment, and changes in supply - demand fundamentals [1] 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar futures price rose, with the 2510 contract closing at 3307 yuan/ton, up 83 yuan/ton or 2.57%. Spot prices also increased significantly, and the trading volume remained high. Policy news boosted market sentiment, and the coal price limit also had a positive impact. The short - term rebar futures is expected to run strongly [1] - Iron Ore: The main contract i2509 price rose to 823 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton or 1.7%. Port spot prices were strong. The global iron ore shipment increased, and the iron water output was at a relatively high level, with port inventory decreasing. The ore price is expected to continue the trend of fluctuating strongly [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1048.5 yuan/ton, up 42.5 yuan/ton or 4.22%. Spot prices increased. On the supply side, over - capacity mines would be rectified. On the demand side, the steel price rebounded, and the demand for coking coal improved. The short - term coking coal futures is expected to run strongly [1] - Coke: The coke 2509 contract closed at 1697.5 yuan/ton, up 59.5 yuan/ton or 5.9%. Spot prices rose. The second round of price increase was implemented, and the cost of coking coal increased. The demand improved due to the rebound of steel prices. The short - term coke futures is expected to run strongly [1] - Silicomanganese: The silicomanganese futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 6012 yuan/ton, up 1.76%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment was the main driving force, but the supply was increasing and the demand was decreasing. The cost support was enhanced. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price fluctuated strongly, with the main contract closing at 5874 yuan/ton, up 3.74%. Spot prices increased in some regions. The market sentiment drove the price up, but the demand was at a low level. The cost was relatively stable. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: The report shows the latest values and changes of contract spreads (such as 10 - 1 month, 1 - 5 month) for various black commodities including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. [4] - Basis: It also presents the latest values and changes of basis for different contracts of various commodities [4] - Spot Price: The latest spot prices and their changes in different regions for each commodity are provided [4] - Profit and Spread: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and cross - commodity spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc.) is given [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc. from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9][11][14] - Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts of various commodities over different time periods [17][18][20][22] - Inter - period Contract Spread: Charts present the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for different commodities [25][27][29][32][34][35][37] - Cross - commodity Contract Spread: Charts show cross - commodity spreads such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - ore ratio, etc. [40][42][44] - Rebar Profit: Charts illustrate the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [45][49] 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and relevant qualifications [51][52]