Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 22nd, both industrial silicon and polysilicon hit the daily limit. The main contract of industrial silicon 2509 closed at 9,655 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 5.98%, and the position decreased by 2,335 lots to 381,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,507 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 grade rose to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened to 275 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated upwards, with the main contract 2509 closing at 49,105 yuan/ton, an intraday increase of 8.99%, and the position increased by 20,122 lots to 192,000 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 45,550 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material rose to 45,500 yuan/ton, with the spot discount widening to 3,865 yuan/ton [2]. - The energy bureau issued a notice on coal mine production review, and the cancellation of electricity price subsidies in Xinjiang strengthened the logic of rising industrial silicon costs. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology reiterated the signal of resolutely combating involution in multiple industries, giving market bulls sufficient confidence, and the double-silicon futures continued to reach new highs. Supported by macro - policies, the futures are more likely to rise than fall. Attention should be paid to the PS/SI price ratio and the potential upward pull expectation before the implementation of policies [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 9,110 yuan/ton on the 21st to 9,470 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 360 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various grades of industrial silicon also generally increased, with the price increase ranging from 100 - 350 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 8,900 yuan/ton to 9,150 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -185 yuan/ton to -275 yuan/ton [4]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 45,660 yuan/ton on the 21st to 4,9105 yuan/ton on the 22nd, a rise of 3,445 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, the price of N-type granular silicon increased by 9,000 yuan/ton, and the price of P-type polysilicon increased by 3,500 yuan/ton. The current lowest deliverable price rose from 43,500 yuan/ton to 45,500 yuan/ton, and the spot discount widened from -2,160 yuan/ton to -3,865 yuan/ton [4]. - Organic Silicon: The prices of DMC in the East China market, raw rubber, and 107 glue remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 2,000 yuan/ton [4]. - Inventory: The industrial silicon warehouse receipts decreased by 88 lots, the industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 1,400 tons, the polysilicon warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and the polysilicon social inventory decreased by 0.5 tons [4]. 2. Chart Analysis 2.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - Charts show the prices of various grades of industrial silicon, grade price differences, regional price differences, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [5][7][10] 2.2 Downstream Product Prices - Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [13][14][16] 2.3 Inventory - Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, industrial silicon factory warehouses, industrial silicon weekly industry inventory, DMC weekly inventory, and polysilicon weekly inventory [19][22] 2.4 Cost - Profit - Charts show the average cost and profit levels of main production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, DMC cost - profit, and polysilicon cost - profit [25][27][32]
光大期货工业硅&多晶硅日报-20250723
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 06:58