光大期货软商品日报-20250723

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the short - term Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom but is unlikely to have a continuous upward trend, presenting a volatile pattern. It's advisable to sell high - priced out - of - the - money call options and buy low - priced out - of - the - money put options [1]. - For sugar, due to the high import forecast in July and market pressure, the futures price is expected to maintain a weakly volatile trend [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Cotton: On Tuesday, ICE U.S. cotton rose 0.23% to 68.26 cents per pound, and CF509 rose 0.11% to 14,225 yuan per ton. The main contract's open interest decreased by 5,314 lots to 554,200 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang was 15,416 yuan per ton, down 64 yuan from the previous day, and the China Cotton Price Index for Grade 3128B was 15,549 yuan per ton, down 40 yuan. The international market has limited drivers, with more focus on the macro - level. The domestic market sentiment has warmed up, and the cotton price reversed in the afternoon. The short - term situation of low imports and low inventories remains unchanged, providing support at the bottom, but there is insufficient driving force for continuous upward movement [1]. - Sugar: The European crop monitoring agency MARS lowered the 2025 EU sugar beet yield forecast to 74.8 tons per hectare. The spot prices of sugar in different regions have some adjustments. The raw sugar is in a volatile trend under the pressure of increased production and is difficult to break through. With high import forecasts in July, the domestic market is under pressure [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 195 with no change, the main basis is 1324, down 80. The Xinjiang spot price is 15,416 yuan per ton, down 64, and the national spot price is 15,549 yuan per ton, down 40 [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 170 with no change, the main basis is 252, up 11. The Nanning spot price is 6050 yuan per ton, down 10, and the Liuzhou spot price is 6075 yuan per ton, down 5 [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On July 22, the number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 9,436, down 65 from the previous trading day, with 293 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions are provided. The yarn comprehensive load decreased by 0.2 to 49.7, the yarn comprehensive inventory remained unchanged at 29.8, the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load remained unchanged at 48, and the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory decreased by 0.1 to 33.6 [3]. - Sugar: On July 22, the Nanning sugar spot price was 6050 yuan per ton, down 10, and the Liuzhou price was 6075 yuan per ton, down 5. The number of sugar futures warehouse receipts was 21,359, down 78 from the previous trading day, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. Chart Analysis - Multiple charts are provided, including those related to cotton (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.) and sugar (such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, etc.) [6][8][9][14][15][17] Group 4: Research Team Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry [19]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea and soda ash glass [20]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton and cotton yarn [21].