能言汇说/受惠经济复苏，新西兰元目标0.61

Economic Indicators - U.S. retail sales increased by 0.6% in June, surpassing economists' expectations of 0.1%[1] - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell to 221,000, a decrease of 7,000, marking the lowest level since mid-April[1] - New Zealand's Q2 Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual increase rose to 2.7%, slightly above the previous value of 2.5% but below the market expectation of 2.8%[2] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of New Zealand maintained the interest rate at 3.25%, aligning with market expectations[2] - There is an increased probability of a 0.25% rate cut in August, rising from approximately 60% to over 80% following the inflation data release[2] Currency Outlook - New Zealand's GDP grew by 0.8% in Q1, indicating a recovery in the economy, with contributions from primary industries, goods production, and services[3] - The New Zealand dollar (NZD) is expected to target 0.61 against the U.S. dollar, as the upward momentum of the U.S. dollar weakens[3]