Research Views Corn - Tuesday saw the corn weighted contract increase in price with reduced positions, and the September contract has reduced positions for two consecutive days with a rebound in futures prices. In the spot market, the impact of imported corn auctions on the market has weakened due to the decline in the auction成交率. The overall atmosphere in the Northeast production area has recovered, and corn prices have rebounded. Corn prices in North China are generally stable, with individual enterprises slightly increasing prices. The arrival volume of corn at Shandong deep - processing enterprises has increased, but the prices remain stable. In Henan and Hebei, a few enterprises have slightly increased prices. Corn prices in the sales area have slightly rebounded. Over the weekend, corn prices in the production area rebounded by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The futures have been rising, and traders at ports in the sales area have slightly increased their quotes, but downstream acceptance is average, and trading is dull. Technically, the September contract has rebounded to the previous intensive trading range of 2320 - 2330, and the short - term rebound is restricted by technical resistance, showing a short - term weakening and oscillating trend [1]. Soybean Meal - On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower with high volatility, rising at one point due to the decline in US crop ratings and trade negotiation news. US soybean meal rose, and US soybean oil fell. Traders were originally worried about the high temperature in the US Midwest damaging yields, but after a brief heatwave in the middle of this week, rainfall is expected to limit crop stress. In the domestic market, the spot prices of domestic rapeseed meal and soybean meal have all increased, and futures prices have also risen. The general rise of commodities has created a mostly bullish atmosphere for the protein meal market. The firm Brazilian premium and the increase in soybean import costs support the price of soybean meal. The oil mill operating rate remains high, but terminal inquiry willingness is low, and it is mainly for short - term rigid demand. The inventory of soybean meal is accumulating rapidly. Oil mills have limited contracts for sale, and some factories have suspended spot quotes or adopted a price - holding strategy. The market is closely watching the progress of Sino - US relations and the fourth - quarter oilseed procurement. The trading strategy is to hold a bullish view on the market, and hold long positions in the 91 and 15 spreads of soybean meal [1]. Fats and Oils - On Tuesday, BMD palm oil slightly increased, following the trend of the surrounding market. However, market volatility has intensified due to the unclear prospects of trade negotiations between major economies. Canadian rapeseed prices fell because of the beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairie this week, which support crop yield prospects, but commercial buying limited the decline. In the domestic market, the spot prices of palm oil have all increased, while the spot prices of domestic soybean oil and imported rapeseed oil have all decreased. Recently, oil mills have urged downstream customers to pick up goods, but the fundamentals of soybean oil remain loose, and the inventory has continued to rise, reaching an eight - month high. Commodities have generally risen, led by industrial products, and the fats and oils market lacks hot spots, with capital flowing out. The fats and oils market is mainly oscillating. The trading strategy is to conduct intraday trading on single - side positions and hold long positions in the 91 spreads [1]. Eggs - On Tuesday, the main egg contract 2509 oscillated and adjusted, closing down 0.41% at 3621 yuan/500 kilograms. According to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.2 yuan/jin, a 0.03 - yuan/jin increase from the previous day. In the production area, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.15 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, a 0.2 - yuan/jin increase. In the sales area, the price of Putuo brown - shell eggs was 3.24 yuan/jin, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.63 yuan/jin, unchanged from the previous day. Terminal consumption is stable, and most traders purchase and sell in line with the market. Egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing slight increases or decreases. Currently, the supply is still relatively abundant. After the previous low - price rebound, egg prices have stabilized. Fundamentally, egg prices are expected to enter a peak season, which is bullish for prices. However, considering the current high inventory and cold - storage eggs, the peak egg price is likely to be lower than last year [1]. Live Pigs - On Tuesday, the main live pig contract 2509 oscillated and closed up 0.1% at 14380 yuan/ton. According to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 14.34 yuan/kg, a 0.06 - yuan/kg decrease from the previous day. The average price of live pigs in the benchmark delivery area of Henan was 14.46 yuan/kg, a 0.02 - yuan/kg decrease. Prices in Guangdong and Sichuan were flat, while those in Shandong and Liaoning decreased. After the previous rebound in pig prices, farmers have been actively selling, and the supply is sufficient, but downstream demand support is weak. Pig prices are stable in some regions and decreasing in others. Fundamentally, there is no significant change. Considering the supply pressure and policy support, the view on pig prices is that they will oscillate. On the futures chart, the previous high forms obvious resistance. Attention should be paid to changes in spot prices and market sentiment [2]. Market Information - According to SGS, Malaysia's palm oil exports from July 1 - 20 are estimated to be 486,404 tons, a 35.99% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - Russia's Agriculture Minister Oksana Lut said that Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, has cut its 2025 wheat production and 2025/26 market - year wheat export volume forecasts. The current forecast for wheat production is 88 - 90 million tons, down from the previous 90 million tons. The expected export volume for this year is 43 - 44 million tons, lower than the previous forecast of 45 million tons [3]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports in June 2025 remained high at 1.26 million tons, exceeding the figures in June 2022 (1.19 million tons), June 2023 (1.17 million tons), and June 2024 (1.21 million tons). However, the palm oil inventory reached an 18 - month high of 2.03 million tons. In the first half of 2025, Kenya became Malaysia's second - largest palm oil buyer, surpassing the EU 27 (21,000 tons) and China (117,000 tons). Kenya accounts for 30% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports to sub - Saharan Africa, and its annual import volume from Malaysia is expected to reach 1.3 million tons [3]. - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said that the next round of Sino - US talks may discuss China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil. At the Chinese Foreign Ministry's regular press conference on July 22, spokesperson Guo Jiakun said that China's stance on tariffs is consistent and clear, hoping that the US will work with China to implement the important consensus reached in the phone calls between the two heads of state, give play to the role of the Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism, and promote the stable, healthy, and sustainable development of Sino - US relations through dialogue and communication [3]. Variety Spreads Contract Spreads - The report provides charts of the 9 - 1 spreads for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [5][7][8][11] Contract Basis - The report provides charts of the basis for corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs [13][17][23][25] Research Team Members - Wang Na is the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute and the leader of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. She has won the "Best Agricultural Product Analyst" title in the Futures Daily and Securities Times' Best Futures Analyst selection for many years. In 2019, her team won the title of the top ten research and investment teams at DCE. In 2023, her team won the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University. She is a special economic analyst for Xinhua News Agency and a financial commentator on CCTV's economic and news channels [27]. - Hou Xueling is an analyst for soybeans at Everbright Futures. She has more than ten years of futures - trading experience. Her team won the title of the most potential agricultural product futures research and development team at DCE in 2013 and the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019. In 2023, she participated in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in cooperation with Nankai University and won the special prize [27]. - Kong Hailan, a master in economics, is currently a researcher for eggs and live pigs at Everbright Futures Research Institute. She is a guest analyst on First Financial Channel. Her team won the title of the top ten research and development teams at DCE in 2019 and the special prize in the DCE "Sailing in the Futures Sea" college student practice competition in 2023 [27].
光大期货农产品日报-20250723
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 07:44