有色金属周报（精炼锡）：江西及国内精炼锡产能开工率连续回升，国内反内卷政策引导乐观情绪或有缓和-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The passage suggests that despite the passing of the US stable - coin related bill and the increasing probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut, the rising optimism driven by domestic anti - involution policies may ease, and with the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo - Kinshasa, along with the continuous increase in the operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. It advises investors to hold existing long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels, and pay attention to specific support and resistance levels for Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - Myanmar's Wa State decided on July 11 that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees, with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months. This may lead to a month - on - month decrease (increase) in domestic tin ore production (import) in July. Additionally, the domestic tin concentrate processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation for domestic tin ore [3]. - China's recycled tin production in July increased month - on - month [3][22][24]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week. China's refined tin production (inventory) in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][26][28]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce medium - and long - term export quotas, causing a possible month - on - month decrease in July exports. China's refined tin imports (exports) in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][32]. Demand Side - China's tin solder production capacity utilization rate (inventory) in July decreased (increased) month - on - month [3]. - China's solder strip imports (exports) in July may increase month - on - month [3][37][39]. - China's tinplate production (imports, exports) in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][41][43]. Investment Strategy - Due to the factors mentioned above, the upward space for Shanghai tin prices may be limited. Investors are advised to hold previous long positions cautiously or take profits at high levels. They should pay attention to the support levels around 248,000 - 258,000 and the resistance levels around 274,000 - 283,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support levels around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance levels around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. Basis and Spread Analysis - The Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, while the month - to - month spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expected resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo - Kinshasa, the increasing weekly operating capacity and social inventory of domestic refined tin, and the suppression of downstream demand during the traditional domestic consumption off - season. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [4][6]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) contract spread is positive and basically within a reasonable range, and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and also within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is below the 50% quantile of the past five years. Due to the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September/December, the oscillating decline in the LME refined tin inventory, and Trump's tariff hikes on multiple countries, investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [8][10]. Inventory Situation - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; China's tin ingot social inventory increased compared to last week; and the LME refined tin inventory decreased compared to last week [13]. Tin Ore Processing Fee - The domestic tin ore daily processing fee has decreased, and the domestic tin concentrate daily processing fee is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation for domestic tin ore [15][17]. Tin Mine Production and Import - Domestic tin mine production (imports) in July decreased (increased) month - on - month. This is affected by the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar and Congo - Kinshasa, as well as Thailand's suspension of transit exports of Burmese tin ore to China [19][21]. Lead - Acid Battery - As tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, as of July 17, China's lead - acid battery production capacity utilization rate increased compared to last week [47].