浦银国际策略观点：港股能否再创新高？-20250723

Group 1 - The report highlights that Hong Kong stocks have shown strong performance this year, driven by breakthroughs in AI technology, which have significantly improved market sentiment and attracted global capital to Hong Kong as a "value oasis" [1][7]. - Structural changes have broken the logic of low valuations in Hong Kong stocks, which had been perceived as a "value trap" due to poor liquidity and low returns. Recent improvements in various factors have led to a revaluation of the market [4][7]. - The liquidity situation in the Hong Kong market has significantly improved this year, supported by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's liquidity injections, continuous net inflows from southbound funds, and a booming IPO market [17][24]. Group 2 - The report anticipates that earnings will become the key driver of market trends, as the valuation expansion space is limited. The focus should be on sectors and stocks that are less affected by tariff policies and can leverage AI for strong earnings growth [36][44]. - The report suggests that the Hong Kong market will primarily exhibit structural trends in the short term, with accelerated sector rotation expected as the half-year earnings reporting period approaches [47]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying sectors with low valuations and strong earnings potential, particularly in the technology sector related to AI, to achieve better returns [36][47]. Group 3 - The report indicates that the IPO market in Hong Kong has rebounded significantly, with total fundraising reaching 122.9 billion HKD this year, surpassing the total for 2024, and a notable decrease in the first-day listing failure rate [29][30]. - The report notes that share buybacks in Hong Kong remain at a high level, with a total buyback amount of 107 billion HKD so far this year, which is expected to improve ROE in the market [31][34]. - The report highlights that the earnings growth expectations for the Hang Seng Index are relatively low compared to other indices, but the technology sector is expected to show strong growth, with projected earnings growth rates of 33.2% and 22.5% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [36][38].