中原期货晨会纪要-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market shows a complex trend, with various commodities and financial indices having different performances. The macro - economic environment has multiple influencing factors, and investors need to pay attention to policy changes and market supply - demand relationships [7][8][11]. - For different sectors, such as agriculture, energy - chemical, industrial metals, and option - finance, the market is expected to have different trends, including shocks, upward or downward movements, and investors should make decisions based on specific market conditions [11][14][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Commodity Index Daily Market Tracking - Macro Indicators: On July 23, 2025, at 08:00, the Dow Jones Industrial Index was 44502.44, up 0.405% from the previous day; the Nasdaq Index was 20892.69, down 0.388%; the S&P 500 was 6309.62, up 0.064%; the Hang Seng Index was 25130.03, up 0.544%. The SHIBOR overnight rate was 1.32, down 3.587%; the US dollar index was 97.48, up 0.129%; the US dollar against the RMB (CFETS) remained unchanged [2]. - External Futures Contracts: COMEX gold was 3444.00, up 0.988%; COMEX silver was 39.66, up 1.070%; LME copper was 9898.00, up 0.314%; LME aluminum was 2652.00, up 0.417%; LME zinc was 2853.50, up 0.316%; LME lead was 2014.50, down 0.025%; LME tin was 33920.00, up 0.728%; LME nickel was 15530.00, up 0.129%; ICE 11 - sugar was 16.26, down 0.611%; ICE 2 - cotton was 68.26, up 0.250%; CBOT soybeans was 1026.00, down 0.073%; CBOT soybean meal was 286.90, up 0.702%; CBOT soybean oil was 55.48, down 0.573%; CBOT corn was 417.50, down 1.183%; NYMEX crude oil was 65.45, down 0.502%; ICE Brent crude was 68.67, down 0.608% [2]. - Domestic Futures Contracts - Metals: Gold was 792.94, up 1.032%; silver was 9453.00, up 0.639%; copper was 79970.00, up 0.288%; zinc was 22970.00, up 0.109%; aluminum was 20925.00, up 0.120%; tin was 269320.00, up 0.298%; lead was 16945.00, up 0.089%; nickel was 123730.00, up 0.008%; iron ore was 818.50, down 0.547%; alumina was 3487.00, down 0.740%; rebar was 3302.00, down 0.151%; stainless steel was 12975.00, up 0.348%; hot - rolled coil was 3464.00, down 0.374% [2]. - Domestic Futures Contracts - Chemicals: Coking coal was 1135.50, up 8.298%; coke was 1731.50, up 2.003%; natural rubber was 15075.00, up 0.10%; 20 - rubber was 12900.00, up 0.350%; plastic was 7346.00, down 0.299%; polypropylene PP was 7147.00, down 0.293%; PTA was 4802.00, up 0.167%; asphalt was 3613.00, up 0.111%; methanol was 2449.00, down 0.326%; ethylene glycol was 4460.00, up 0.292%; styrene was 7452.00, down 0.388%; glass was 1237.00, down 0.961%; crude oil was 503.80, down 0.099%; fuel oil was 2873.00, down 1.744%; soda ash was 1380.00, up 0.364%; pulp was 5468.00, up 1.863%; caustic soda was 2645.00, down 0.489%; PX was 6878.00, down 0.116%; LPG was 3984.00, up 0.378% [5]. - Domestic Futures Contracts - Agricultural Products: Yellow soybean No.1 was 4241.00, up 0.213%; yellow soybean No.2 was 3730.00, up 0.188%; soybean meal was 3092.00, up 0.194%; rapeseed meal was 2738.00, up 0.073%; soybean oil was 8072.00, down 0.050%; rapeseed oil was 9450.00, down 0.285%; palm oil was 8954.00, up 0.314%; white sugar was 5819.00, down 0.069%; yellow corn was 2303.00, down 0.818%; corn starch was 2660.00, down 0.30%; No.1 cotton was 14235.00, up 0.070%; cotton yarn was 20450.00, up 0.098% [5]. 3.2 Macro - economic News - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real - estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%, and personal housing loan balance was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [7]. - The US reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia, with tariff adjustments and market - opening measures [7]. - The "Regulations on Rural Highways" will be implemented on September 15, 2025, aiming to promote the high - quality development of rural highways [7]. - The US - China new - round negotiation may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran, and China hopes to promote the stable and healthy development of bilateral relations through dialogue [8]. - China is dissatisfied with the WTO's arbitration ruling in the China - EU trade dispute and will handle it properly according to WTO rules [8]. - In the first half of the year, non - bank sector cross - border capital inflows were 127.3 billion US dollars, and foreign investors net - increased holdings of domestic stocks and funds by 10.1 billion US dollars, reversing the net - reduction trend of the past two years [8]. - Central enterprises are required to actively participate in urban development and new - quality productivity construction [8]. - More than 66 million consumers bought over 109 million home appliances through trade - in programs, and over 69 million consumers bought over 74 million digital products this year [9]. - In the first half of the year, China's shipbuilding completion, new orders, and order backlog ranked first globally [9]. 3.3 Morning Meeting Views on Major Varieties - Agricultural Products: Peanut market is in a weak supply - demand situation, with prices expected to be weakly volatile; the oil market is expected to be volatile, with increased exports of soybeans and palm oil; sugar futures are affected by supply - demand factors, with prices in a key range; corn is in a game between policy support and weak demand, with suggestions to go long lightly; the pig market is oversupplied, with prices adjusting; the egg market has rising prices due to reduced production and increased demand [11][14]. - Energy and Chemicals: Caustic soda has strong cost support and rising market sentiment, with attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread; urea prices are expected to be strongly volatile, with attention to export quotas and autumn fertilizer procurement; copper prices are expected to be sorted in a high - level range, and aluminum prices are expected to be volatile at high levels; alumina prices are expected to continue to be strong; steel prices are expected to be firm in the short term; ferroalloys may continue to rise with policy expectations; double - coking coal prices are strongly trending; lithium carbonate prices are driven by policies and rising ore prices, with suggestions to go long at low levels but beware of selling pressure [14][16][17]. - Option - finance: The A - share market maintains a slow - bull trend, with the market style possibly switching; in the short term, the operation is optimistic, with attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC; in the option market, trend investors can pay attention to the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities between varieties, and volatility investors can buy straddles to go long on volatility [17][18][19].