春江水暖鸭先知，欠涨券商布局正当时

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the brokerage sector [2] Core Viewpoints - The brokerage sector is expected to benefit from the transition of the A-share market from a stock market to an incremental market, with trading activity increasing and overall market valuations rising [5][6] - The forecasted net profit growth for the brokerage firms in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 75.02%, with significant contributions from leading firms [5][8] - The report highlights the potential for brokers to benefit from stablecoin developments and virtual asset license upgrades, which could create new growth opportunities [5] - There is a notable price discrepancy between A-shares and H-shares of brokerage firms, indicating potential for A-shares to catch up [5][9] - The report suggests that the current market environment is conducive for investing in underperforming brokerage stocks, with a focus on leading firms and fintech companies [5] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The total number of listed companies in the brokerage sector is 83, with a total market value of 76,326.04 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 73,589.02 billion yuan [2] Market Dynamics - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in trading volume, with a transaction amount of 1.93 trillion yuan on July 22, 2025, marking an 11.7% increase from the previous trading day [5] - The financing balance in the market reached 1.9 trillion yuan, reflecting a 0.8% increase, while the financing purchase balance increased by 7.6% [5] Performance Forecast - The report indicates that 29 brokerage firms have forecasted a net profit growth of 75.02% for the first half of 2025, with the second quarter showing a 20.66% year-on-year growth [5][8] - The top five firms by net profit growth include Huaxi Securities (1189.5%), Guolian Minsheng (1183.0%), and Guosheng Jinkong (315.5%) [5][8] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading brokerage firms such as Guotai Junan, CITIC Securities, and Orient Securities, as well as fintech leaders like Dongfang Wealth and Zhinancun [5]