航空行业分析：综合整治“内卷式”竞争，看好供需改善带来的座收盈利弹性

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the aviation industry is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights the ongoing efforts to rectify "involutionary" competition within the industry, which is expected to lead to an improved competitive landscape [2] - Strong demand for travel during the summer season has resulted in high passenger load factors, with a cumulative passenger throughput of 99.864 million from July 1 to July 22, 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2] - The report indicates a strong certainty of supply contraction due to delays in aircraft deliveries caused by supply chain disruptions, with net growth rates for major airlines remaining below 3% [2] - The decline in oil prices is expected to enhance airline profitability, with aviation kerosene prices decreasing by 10.0% and 17.0% in Q1 and Q2 of 2025 compared to the same periods in 2024 [2] - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of seat revenue due to improving supply-demand dynamics, suggesting a focus on major airlines such as Air China, China Southern Airlines, China Eastern Airlines, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines [2] Summary by Sections - Industry Competition: The Civil Aviation Administration of China is leading efforts to optimize route networks and reduce irrational competition, which is expected to improve the industry's structure [2] - Passenger Demand: The summer travel season has shown robust demand, with domestic flight load factors reaching 84.3%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Supply Constraints: Major airlines are experiencing limited fleet growth, with net growth rates for several airlines being below 3%, and operational capacity is expected to remain tight [2] - Oil Price Trends: The average price of aviation kerosene has decreased significantly, contributing to potential profit increases for airlines [2] - Profitability Outlook: The report anticipates that improving seat revenue will lead to greater profitability for airlines, with a recommendation to focus on key players in the industry [2]