查超产消息提振市场情绪，预计动力煤价格易涨难跌

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View The report suggests that although the rumored news of investigating over - production in the coal industry is expected to have a limited impact, it will strengthen the market sentiment, making the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall. The recent coal price is driven by peak - season demand for a weak rebound, but the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market in the domestic coal industry has continued to ferment. On July 22, it was rumored that the National Energy Administration issued a notice to conduct a coal mine production situation verification in 8 key coal - producing provinces (regions), mainly checking for over - production. Mines with annual or monthly production exceeding 10% of the announced capacity will be ordered to suspend production for rectification. As of the time of publication, the notice was not found on the official website of the National Energy Administration [2]. Recent Coal Price Operation Logic - In 2025, from January to June, the national cumulative raw coal production was 240,456 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The coal price was weak, with the price of thermal coal at northern ports dropping from 770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to a low of 617 yuan/ton, a drop of 20%. Recently, the coal market sentiment is strong, and the high - temperature cooling demand in summer has increased daily consumption, driving a weak rebound in prices. However, the high downstream inventory restricts the rebound space [3]. Impact of Over - production Check News - Even though the impact of the over - production check news is expected to be limited, it will strengthen the market sentiment. Given that low - calorie coal has fallen below the cost line and there is a structural shortage of high - quality coal, the supply contraction expectation will make the thermal coal price more likely to rise than fall [4]. Policy Implementation Difficulties - In the previous round of supply - side reform, the elimination of backward coal mine production capacity had achieved obvious results. The current mines mostly meet safety and environmental requirements, so the effect of anti - involution and over - production checks on reducing production cannot be compared with that of supply - side reform. Also, the coal industry accounts for a large proportion of the economy in key coal - producing provinces, so over - production checks may conflict with local economic growth goals [5].