Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 08:43Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and stable demand. The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a stage of stable supply and temporarily weak demand. The cast aluminum alloy market may be in a situation of weak supply and demand [2]. - For all three markets (alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy), the operation suggestion is to conduct light - position oscillating trading, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 20,790 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 3,355 yuan/ton, down 158 yuan; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,652 dollars/ton, up 11 dollars; the closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 20,155 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan [2]. - Positions: The position of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 327,482 lots, down 3,415 lots; the position of the alumina main contract is 193,941 lots, down 17,703 lots; the position of the cast aluminum alloy main contract is 9,938 lots, unchanged [2]. - Inventory: LME aluminum注销仓单 is 9,975 tons, up 2,425 tons; the total inventory of alumina is 44,664 tons, down 15,000 tons; the Shanghai Aluminum SHFE inventory is 108,822 tons, up 5,625 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Prices: The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum is 20,850 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingot nationwide is 20,250 yuan/ton, unchanged; the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous is 3,215 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2]. - Basis: The basis of cast aluminum alloy is 95 yuan/ton, down 615 yuan; the basis of electrolytic aluminum is 60 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the basis of alumina is - 140 yuan/ton, up 163 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina: The production is 774.93 million tons, up 26.13 million tons; the demand is 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance is 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan is 16,300 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; China's import volume is 155,616.27 tons, down 4,084.65 tons; the export volume is 64.33 tons, down 8.11 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance is 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 44.10 million tons, down 30,781 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 4,520.70 million tons, up 0.50 million tons [2]. - Production and Export: The production of aluminum products is 587.37 million tons, up 11.17 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 49.00 million tons, down 6.00 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.58 million tons, up 0.16 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Production: The production of aluminum alloy is 166.90 million tons, up 2.40 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the automobile production is 280.86 million vehicles, up 16.66 million vehicles [2]. - Indices: The national real estate prosperity index is 93.60, down 0.11 [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - Volatility: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum is 10.31%, up 0.27%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 10.08%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money is 11.84%, up 0.0046% [2]. - Ratio: The call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options is 1.09, down 0.0309 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - The US Treasury Secretary mentioned that the new round of China - US negotiations may discuss China's purchase of oil from Russia and Iran. The Chinese Foreign Ministry responded on tariff issues, hoping that the US and China would promote the stable, healthy and sustainable development of bilateral relations through dialogue [2]. - The Fed Governor emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence in monetary policy and the responsibility to maintain transparency and accountability [2]. - At the end of the second quarter, the balance of RMB real estate loans was 53.33 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; the balance of real estate development loans was 13.81 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year increase of 0.3%; the balance of individual housing loans was 37.74 trillion yuan, with a year - on - year decrease of 0.1% [2]. - Since this year, over 66 million consumers have purchased over 109 million units of 12 categories of home appliances through trade - in programs, over 69 million consumers have purchased over 74 million mobile phones and other digital products, and 82,000 sales stores across the country have carried out trade - in programs for electric bicycles, with a total of 9.056 million new vehicles exchanged [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - Fundamentals: The port inventory of domestic bauxite is gradually rising, the domestic supply is relatively sufficient, and the bauxite price is stable. The production willingness of smelters has increased, and the operating capacity has grown. The short - term domestic alumina supply is expected to be relatively sufficient. The high aluminum price provides profits for smelters, and the demand for alumina is supported [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - Fundamentals: The electrolytic aluminum capacity replacement project is advancing steadily, the operating capacity is at a high level, but due to the off - season of consumption, the ingot production has increased and the industrial inventory has accumulated. The downstream consumption is affected by the off - season, and the spot market trading is cautious [2]. - Options: The call - put ratio is 1.09, down 0.0309, and the implied volatility has slightly increased, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2]. 3.10 Casting Aluminum Alloy View Summary - Fundamentals: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the domestic cast aluminum production is affected by raw material supply and the off - season, with the operating rate declining. The low demand restricts the spot price of cast aluminum, and the industrial inventory is gradually accumulating [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD has double lines above the 0 - axis and the green bars are expanding [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and risks [2].