Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 08:42Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply of soda ash is expected to remain abundant, with demand hovering at the bottom. It is recommended to consider buying put options for the soda ash main contract. - For glass, it is advisable to temporarily wait and see as the price has encountered short - term platform resistance and the subsequent breakthrough is uncertain [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1338 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 1211 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash main contract open interest: 1074637 lots, down 177945 lots; glass main contract open interest: 1044115 lots, down 182849 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net open interest: - 225673 lots, up 77294 lots; glass top 20 net open interest: - 248449 lots, up 45449 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 236 tons, up 236 tons; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: - 59 yuan, unchanged; glass September - January contract spread: - 93 yuan, down 12 yuan. - Soda ash basis: - 95 yuan/ton, unchanged; glass basis: - 113 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1280 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; Central China heavy soda ash: 1250 yuan/ton, unchanged. - East China light soda ash: 1150 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China light soda ash: 1195 yuan/ton, unchanged. - Shahe glass sheets: 1136 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1170 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 84.1%, up 2.78 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.34%, down 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.78 million tons/year, down 0.06 million tons; glass in - production production lines: 223, down 1. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 188.42 million tons, down 2.14 million tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6493.9 million heavy boxes, down 216.3 million heavy boxes [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - Cumulative real estate new construction area: 30364.32 million square meters, up 7180.71 million square meters; cumulative real estate completion area: 22566.61 million square meters, up 4181.47 million square meters [2]. 3.5 Industry News - On July 22, a notice from the Comprehensive Department of the National Energy Administration to promote the stable and orderly supply of coal circulated online. The notice aims to regulate coal mining enterprises' production behavior. On July 23, it was confirmed to be true [2]. 3.6 Viewpoint Summary - Soda ash: Supply is abundant, with production increasing. Profits have slightly recovered but are still negative, and production is expected to decline. Natural alkali method will gradually become the mainstream. Glass production line cold - repaired 1, with overall production unchanged. Domestic soda ash enterprise inventory is increasing due to insufficient demand and is expected to continue to accumulate. - Glass: Supply - side production remains at the bottom, with signs of rigid - demand production. Industry profits have improved, and the resumption of production may increase. Demand - side, the real - estate situation is not optimistic, downstream deep - processing orders are declining, and photovoltaic glass also faces inventory pressure [2].