瑞达期货生猪产业日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - As the hog price weakens, the low price attracts secondary fattening entry, and the monthly - end slaughter rhythm may slow down again, supporting the short - term hog futures price to fluctuate higher. However, due to weak demand, the increase in the spot price is limited, which will drag down the upside space of the futures market. The short - term price is greatly affected by the slaughter and secondary fattening entry and exit rhythm and may be volatile [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main hog futures contract is 14,590 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan; the main contract position is 67,303 lots, up 7,482 lots; the number of warehouse receipts is 284 lots, unchanged; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 20,804 lots, down 3,994 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The hog prices in Henan Zhumadian, Jilin Siping, and Guangdong Yunfu are 14,300 yuan/ton (down 100 yuan), 13,900 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan), and 15,700 yuan/ton (down 200 yuan) respectively. The main hog basis is - 290 yuan/ton, down 310 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The monthly hog inventory is 41,7310,000 heads, down 1,0120,000 heads; the monthly inventory of breeding sows is 4,0420,000 heads, up 40,000 heads [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The year - on - year change of CPI is - 0.1%, unchanged; the spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of corn is 2,409.02 yuan/ton, down 0.88 yuan; the Dalian Commodity Exchange pig feed cost index is 950.02, up 0.49; the monthly output of feed is 27,621,000 tons, up 981,000 tons; the weekly price of binary breeding sows is 1,638 yuan/head, down 2 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 18.66 yuan/head, down 50.26 yuan; the weekly breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised hogs is 90.89 yuan/head, down 42.98 yuan; the monthly import volume of pork is 90,000 tons, up 10,000 tons; the weekly average price of white - striped chicken in the main production areas is 13.4 yuan/kg, up 0.2 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly slaughter volume of designated hog slaughtering enterprises is 3,2160,000 heads, up 1390,000 heads; the monthly retail sales of social consumer goods in the catering industry is 4,578.2 billion yuan, up 411.2 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Industry News - On July 23, 2025, the daily hog slaughter volume of key breeding enterprises nationwide was 269,940 heads, down 0.01% from the previous day. The hog 2509 contract rose 1.67% on Wednesday. Supply in July - August may be affected by factors such as high disease incidence at the beginning of the year and growth slowdown due to high temperature. Currently, the slaughter volume of the breeding end has increased in the middle of the month, with a higher proportion of large hogs in the south, but there are many auction failures, and low prices attract secondary fattening inquiries. Demand is weak due to high temperature and school holidays, the slaughterhouse startup rate continues to decline but is higher than last year [2].