瑞达期货菜籽系产业日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic rapeseed meal market is influenced by multiple factors. Internationally, the current growth of Canadian rapeseed is in the "weather - dominated" stage, with favorable rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which puts pressure on the market. The US soybean has a high - yield expectation despite a slightly lower - than - expected good rate. Domestically, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans has led to a high oil - mill operating rate and a loose short - term supply of soybean meal, suppressing the price of the meal market. However, the uncertainty of fourth - quarter purchases provides support for the forward market. The peak season of aquaculture boosts the feed demand for rapeseed meal, but the good substitution advantage of soybean meal weakens the demand expectation for rapeseed meal. The domestic rapeseed meal market is generally stronger than the overseas market and maintains a relatively strong operation [2]. - For rapeseed oil, globally, the increase in palm oil production and decline in exports in Malaysia from July 1 - 20 and the significant increase in Indonesian exports, along with positive news in the US and Indonesian biodiesel sectors, affect the global oil market. Domestically, it is the off - season for oil consumption, the supply of vegetable oil is relatively loose, and the high inventory pressure of rapeseed oil mills restricts the market price. However, the decrease in the oil - mill operating rate reduces the output pressure of rapeseed oil, and the fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter may ease the long - term pressure [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active contract of rapeseed oil futures is 9456 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 2758 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan. The 9 - 1 month spread of rapeseed oil is 53 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; that of rapeseed meal is 314 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The net long positions of the top 20 futures holders for rapeseed oil are 8215 lots, down 323 lots; for rapeseed meal are 34003 lots, down 6409 lots. The number of rapeseed oil warehouse receipts is 3487, unchanged; that of rapeseed meal is 0, unchanged. The closing price of the active ICE rapeseed futures is 690 Canadian dollars/ton, down 1 Canadian dollar; that of domestic rapeseed futures is 5165 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu is 9650 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the average price is 9690 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Nantong is 2660 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spot price of rapeseed in Yancheng, Jiangsu is 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged. The oil - meal ratio is 3.55, down 0.05. The basis of the rapeseed oil main contract is 173 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan; that of the rapeseed meal main contract is - 98 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan. The spot price of grade - four soybean oil in Nanjing is 8280 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is 1350 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong is 9000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between rapeseed oil and palm oil is 650 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang is 2920 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 260 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The global predicted annual output of rapeseed is 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; the annual predicted output of rapeseed in a certain region is 12378 thousand tons, unchanged. The total monthly import volume of rapeseed is 18.45 tons, down 15.1 tons. The import cost of imported rapeseed is 4948.05 yuan/ton, down 0.8 yuan. The total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is 200,000 tons, up 50,000 tons. The weekly operating rate of imported rapeseed is 15.72%, up 5.86 percentage points [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil is 340,000 tons, up 100,000 tons; the monthly import volume of rapeseed meal is 287,900 tons, up 41,300 tons. The coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 92,500 tons, down 400 tons; the coastal rapeseed meal inventory is 12,000 tons, down 3,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in the East China region is 584,500 tons, down 8,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory is 351,300 tons, down 29,100 tons. The rapeseed oil inventory in Guangxi is 56,000 tons, down 3,200 tons; the rapeseed meal inventory in South China is 270,000 tons, down 12,000 tons. The weekly提货量 of rapeseed oil is 29,100 tons, down 3,800 tons; that of rapeseed meal is 23,200 tons, down 1,400 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2,762,100 tons, up 98,100 tons. The monthly output of edible vegetable oil is 440,400 tons, down 87,000 tons. The monthly total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry is 45.782 billion yuan, up 4.112 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed meal is 22.88%, up 0.82 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 22.89%, up 0.83 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed meal is 12.54%, down 4.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 16.84%, down 0.28 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for rapeseed oil is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 14.89%, up 0.65 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of rapeseed oil is 10.75%, down 0.55 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 12.9%, up 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - On July 22, ICE rapeseed futures fell for the second consecutive day due to beneficial rainfall and mild temperatures in the Canadian prairies this week, which supported the crop yield outlook. The benchmark November rapeseed futures closed 4.10 Canadian dollars lower at 690.00 Canadian dollars per ton. As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than analysts' expectations of 71% and the previous week's 70%, but still at a high level in the same period, and the weather in the US soybean - producing areas was good, with a strong high - yield expectation [2].