Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 09:04Report Overview - The report is a precious metals industry daily report dated July 23, 2025, covering the precious metals market including gold and silver [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Gold prices are expected to continue rising due to the uncertainty of US - EU tariffs, concerns about US inflation and growth, and market expectations of Fed rate cuts. The "tariff countdown" may be the main trading theme for gold. It is recommended to buy gold at low prices. Silver has shown a strong trend recently with the gold - silver ratio repaired, but short - term callback risks should be noted [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Gold: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 792.9 yuan/gram, up 8.06; the main contract position was 222,387 lots, up 5,665; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 161,804 lots, up 9,350; the warehouse receipt quantity was 28,857 kilograms, unchanged [2] - Silver: The closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 9,492 yuan/kilogram, up 99; the main contract position was 478,279 lots, up 2,269; the net position of the top 20 in the main contract was 134,188 lots, down 2,904; the warehouse receipt quantity was 1,188,482 kilograms, down 10,564 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Gold: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price was 787.97 yuan/gram, with a basis of - 4.93 yuan/gram against the Shanghai Gold main contract, up 6.47; the gold ETF position was 954.8 tons, up 7.74 [2] - Silver: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network silver spot price was 9,419 yuan/kilogram, with a basis of - 73 yuan/kilogram against the Shanghai Silver main contract, up 6; the silver ETF position was 15,158.37 tons, up 152.58 [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold: The CFTC non - commercial net position was 213,115 contracts (weekly), up 10,147; the total quarterly supply was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84; the total quarterly demand was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 [2] - Silver: The CTFC non - commercial net position was 59,448 contracts (weekly), up 927; the total annual supply was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2] 3.4 Option Market - Gold: The 20 - day historical volatility was 10.42%, down 0.83; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 21.32%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 11.2%, up 2.37; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 21.31%, up 2.36 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said Fed Chairman Powell would leave office, and he thought interest rates were too high and should be cut by at least 3 percentage points. He has criticized Powell multiple times this year [2] - US Treasury Secretary Besent said tariff revenues were "huge", possibly accounting for 1% of US GDP, and could reach $2.8 trillion in the next decade. He supported Powell to complete his term and called for an internal review of his non - monetary policy functions [2] - Japan's central bank may keep the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% next week, as Prime Minister Ishiba Shigeru's election defeat has little impact on the central bank's gradual rate - hike policy [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed keeping rates unchanged in July was 95.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut was 4.7%. In September, the probability of keeping rates unchanged was 40.3%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut was 57%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut was 2.7% [2]