Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 09:05Report Overview - Report Title: Shanghai Lead Industry Daily Report 2025-07-23 [2] - Report Date: July 23, 2025 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is about to introduce a stable growth work plan for ten key industries including steel, non - ferrous metals, and petrochemicals, aiming to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity. On the supply side, the operating rate and output of primary lead smelters have declined due to the drop in lead prices. Although the current operating rate of primary lead is relatively strong compared to secondary lead and the by - product revenue is stable, the supply of secondary lead is tight because of the shortage of scrap battery raw materials, and the resumption of production is slow. If the tight supply of scrap batteries is not alleviated, the output of secondary lead will be difficult to increase significantly, which will continue to restrict the overall lead supply increment. On the demand side, although the lead - acid battery industry is approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual situation is that the downstream is still waiting and watching, and the seasonal peak effect has not yet appeared. The overseas inventory of lead is rising, and the domestic inventory is rising slightly, with the warehouse receipts increasing and the overall demand slowing down. The overall impact from the perspective of lead concentrate processing is limited. The Shanghai lead price continues to fluctuate slightly, and the operation suggestion is to buy on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,850 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,015 dollars/ton, up 3.5 dollars [3]. - Spreads and Positions: The spread between the 08 - 09 month contracts of Shanghai lead is - 30 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 101,465 lots, up 2,568 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,632 lots, down 1,396 lots [3]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 62,335 tons, up 7,186 tons; the LME lead inventory is 264,925 tons, down 3,475 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - Spot Prices: The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,910 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. - Basis and Premiums: The basis of the lead main contract is - 125 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 25.97 dollars/ton, down 1.77 dollars [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Production and Utilization: The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.84%, down 7.03 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.32 tons, down 0.29 tons. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 34.15%, down 0.8 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [3]. - Prices and Imports: The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,096 yuan, down 124 yuan; the lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3]. 3.4产业情况 - Imports and Exports: The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons [3]. - Other Indicators: The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the average price of the scrap battery market is 10,135.71 yuan/ton, down 26.79 yuan [3]. 3.5下游情况 - Consumption - related Output: The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the monthly automobile output is 2.8086 million, up 0.1666 million; the monthly new energy vehicle output is 1.647 million, up 0.073 million [3]. - Industry Index: The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other electrical appliances is 1,777.24 points, up 12.6 points [3]. 3.6行业消息 - Tariffs: The US Treasury Secretary said August 1st is a "relatively hard deadline" for all countries, and the EU trade negotiation is separate from the Russia - Ukraine sanctions negotiation. Japan's negotiation is progressing smoothly. Canada is still considering the electricity export tax. South Korea is considering making painful concessions to avoid being fully taxed by the US. Trump reached a trade agreement with the Philippines, with a 19% tariff on the Philippines, and the Philippines will open its market to the US and implement zero - tariff [3]. - White House vs. Fed: The US Treasury Secretary believes the Fed should cut interest rates and that there is no sign for Powell to resign, but if he wants to leave early, he can do so [3].