瑞达期货焦煤焦炭产业日报-20250723

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests an oscillating and bullish approach for both coking coal and coke, with a focus on risk control [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - On July 23, the coking coal 2509 contract closed at 1135.5, up 11.00%. The spot price of Meng 5 raw coal was reported at 900, up 40 yuan/ton. With strong macro - expectations and improved market confidence, the inventory is shifting from upstream to downstream, and the overall inventory is moderately high. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, so it should be treated with an oscillating and bullish view [2] - On July 23, the coke 2509 contract closed at 1707.5, up 3.83%. The coke enterprises started the second round of price hikes. The supply of raw materials is gradually improving, the iron - water output is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure. The total coking coal inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The 4 - hour cycle K - line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, so it should be treated with an oscillating and bullish view [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Coking coal: The JM main - contract closing price was 1135.50 yuan/ton, up 87.00 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 748737.00 lots, down 24788.00 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 contracts was - 63053.00 lots, up 3398.00 lots; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 60.00 yuan/ton, down 28.50 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 0.00 [2] - Coke: The J main - contract closing price was 1707.50 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; the futures contract holding volume was 52840.00 lots, down 1482.00 lots; the net holding volume of the top 20 contracts was - 4463.00 lots, down 89.00 lots; the 1 - 9 month contract spread was 35.50 yuan/ton, down 19.00 yuan; the number of warehouse receipts was 760.00 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - Coking coal: The price of Ganqimao Meng 5 raw coal was 900.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan; the price of Russian prime coking coal forward spot (CFR) was 120.00 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged; the price of Australian imported prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1460.00 yuan/ton, up 40.00 yuan; the price of Shanxi - produced prime coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1440.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of medium - sulfur prime coking coal in LingShi, Jinzhong, Shanxi was 1250.00 yuan/ton, up 150.00 yuan; the ex - factory price of coking coal produced in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia was 1000.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan; the JM main - contract basis was 114.50 yuan/ton, up 63.00 yuan [2] - Coke: The price of Tangshan quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1445.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Rizhao Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port first - class metallurgical coke was 1370.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Tianjin Port quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1270.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the J main - contract basis was - 262.50 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - Coking coal: The raw coal inventory of 110 coal washing plants was 298.69 million tons, down 2.08 million tons; the cleaned coal inventory was 191.54 million tons, down 5.53 million tons; the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants was 62.85%, up 0.52%; the raw coal production was 42107.40 million tons, up 1779.00 million tons; the import volume of coal and lignite was 3304.00 million tons, down 300.00 million tons; the daily average raw coal output of 523 coking coal mines was 192.90 million tons, up 1.10 million tons; the import coking coal inventory at 16 ports was 553.50 million tons, down 0.29 million tons; the total coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 929.11 million tons, up 36.76 million tons; the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 791.10 million tons, up 8.17 million tons; the available days of coking coal for independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 12.63 days, up 0.15 days; the import volume of coking coal was 910.84 million tons, up 172.10 million tons; the coking coal production was 4070.27 million tons, up 144.11 million tons [2] - Coke: The coke inventory at 18 ports was 252.71 million tons, down 2.97 million tons; the coke inventory of independent coking enterprises (full sample) was 87.55 million tons, down 5.53 million tons; the coke inventory of 247 sample steel mills was 638.99 million tons, up 1.19 million tons; the available days of coke for 247 sample steel mills was 11.46 days, down 0.18 days; the export volume of coke and semi - coke was 51.00 million tons, down 17.00 million tons; the coke production was 4170.30 million tons, down 67.30 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises was 73.01%, up 0.14%; the average profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants was - 43.00 yuan/ton, up 20.00 yuan [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.48%, up 0.35%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.92%, up 1.05%; the crude steel production was 8318.40 million tons, down 336.10 million tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) including Shanxi and Inner Mongolia [2] - Russian President Putin will visit China in September [2] - The US has reached trade agreements with the Philippines and Indonesia [2] - Germany has announced an investment initiative worth over 630 billion euros to boost the economy [2] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a stable - growth plan for ten key industries [2] - The US Treasury Secretary will meet with the Chinese Finance Minister to discuss the extension of the agreement to avoid a significant tariff increase [2]