Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-07-23 09:05Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The domestic demand for white sugar is recovering, and the performance of domestic futures prices is stronger than that of the external market. With multiple factors at play, the overall trend is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to pay attention to the arrival of goods at ports and summer consumption. For now, it is advisable to wait and see [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for white sugar is 5,834 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 11 yuan; the main contract position is 332,040 lots, a decrease of 2,120 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 21,098, a decrease of 261. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is -8,305 lots, a decrease of 5,767 lots. The effective warehouse receipt forecast is 0. The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,482 yuan/ton, a decrease of 101 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan [2] Spot Market - The estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (with a 50% tariff) is 5,693 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan; that of imported Thai sugar is 5,772 yuan/ton, also a decrease of 133 yuan. The spot price of white sugar in Kunming is 5,920 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning it is 6,050 yuan/ton, unchanged; and in Liuzhou it is 6,120 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, an increase of 60 thousand hectares. The sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, a decrease of 12.86 thousand hectares [2] Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, an increase of 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, an increase of 86.92 million tons. The national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, a decrease of 81.43 million tons. The national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, an increase of 7.47 percentage points. The monthly import volume of sugar is 420,000 tons, an increase of 70,000 tons. The total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 3.359 billion tons, an increase of 1.1024 billion tons [2] Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, an increase of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production is 2.9%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points [2] Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for white sugar is 7.46%, a decrease of 0.92 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 7.45%, a decrease of 0.93 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility is 5.33%, an increase of 0.07 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.03%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2] Industry News - Coca - Cola will launch a signature cola product using sucrose in the US market this fall. On Tuesday, the ICE raw sugar October contract closed down 0.61%, while the white sugar 2509 contract closed up 0.15%. Internationally, with the arrival of the monsoon season, the supply outlook for major Asian sugar - producing countries is good, and the expectation of loose supply has been weighing on raw sugar prices [2]